A long-time reporter for the New York Times gives it a less than one-in-three chance that the United States will go to war with Iran.

David E. Sanger, the Times's chief Washington correspondent, said there are several reasons the U.S. isn't as likely to attack Iran as it did with Iraq, despite the recent escalating rhetoric.

First is that there aren't a lot of nuclear targets in Iran. While it is clear they are pursuing nuclear power, there is still debate as to whether or not it will be used to create nuclear weapons. That is likely years off, Sanger said.

Second is that there doesn't appear to be an invasion plan for Iran, which instead means a lot of aerial bombing. That wouldn't go over so well with a young population enamored with the American lifestyle that would likely turn against the U.S. if civilians start dying.

Third: "We have a pretty busy military right now."

That military is, of course, in Iraq. The Times has taken plenty of heat over the past few years for not being critical enough during the run-up to the Iraq war, a position Sanger disputed Thursday at BYU. He spoke to students at a presentation of the New York Times Knowledge Network, a program that puts college students in contact with Times journalists and content.

He cited multiple articles that ran on the front page prior to March 20, 2003, that examined possible outcomes, including the fracturing of Sunni, Shia and Kurdish areas, and a culture of payback among various groups from the Saddam years.

Sanger covered the White House for seven years and said that it wasn't until recently that administration's ties of secrecy have begun to loosen. Part of it is tied to President Bush's poll numbers, which peaked just after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks at around 90 percent, to recent lows of 24 percent. Unhappy people tend to speak more. The other reason is that in a second term, die-hard loyalists are often disenchanted or discharged from positions, leaving instead those who are more prone to talk.

Sanger also touched on his coverage of the Challenger shuttle disaster that was tied to Utah. The O-ring that failed was manufactured by Morton-Thiokol (now ATK.) What was first believed to be a freak accident turned out, he said, to be "a tale of mismanagement." The O-ring had a history of poor performance, but NASA ignored the issue to ensure that funding keep coming from the government so that they could make the shuttle a kind of cargo truck into space.

For weeks the paper dug out sources, even staying a step ahead of a government committee also trying to get to the bottom of the explosion that killed seven, including school teacher Christa McAuliffe. He learned an important truth during those days.

"Government sometimes doesn't tell the truth."