It was almost four years ago that I first noted in print the possibility of a turnaround at Showtime, the premium cable network that has since become home to such critically acclaimed series as "Weeds," "Dexter" and "The Tudors." It was mostly wishful thinking on my part that when a new management regime took over, Showtime would find a way to shed its also-ran image.

HBO's missteps in recent years have been well-documented: "Lucky Louie"; canceling "Deadwood" without offering fans a conclusion; allowing "Entourage" to overstay its welcome; giving David Milch carte blanche to create the too-weird-for-its-own-good "John From Cincinnati"; failing to find a successor to "The Sopranos" with similar popular appeal; going overboard on shrink dramas with "Tell Me You Love Me" and "In Treatment," which followed on the high heels of Dr. Melfi in "The Sopranos."

That's not to say HBO hasn't had its successes. "John Adams" was a worthy miniseries, and "Flight of the Conchords" gained a cult following that's likely to build when it returns. But HBO's time as belle of the premium-cable ball began to expire even before former top executive Chris Albrecht departed last spring following a well-publicized domestic dispute in Las Vegas.

Albrecht's exit set the stage for internal turbulence. HBO has always taken its time in developing new programs -- "Carnivale" took several years to get on the air -- but last year's executive shake-up further complicated matters.

Actress Tracey Ullman mentioned last month that her decision to launch a new series at Showtime was driven in part by the fact that HBO, her former network home, was in flux and "wasn't the easiest place to get a decision made."

Adding to the perception that HBO has lost its way, the writers' strike has delayed until fall the return of "Entourage" and the premiere of Alan Ball's vampire drama "True Blood." Movies will air in place of HBO's signature original series on some Sunday nights this summer. No premiere dates have been set for new seasons of "Big Love" or "Conchords."

Against this post-"Sopranos" backdrop, I was optimistic that HBO might find its way back to programming prominence with the comedy series "12 Miles of Bad Road," starring Lily Tomlin as the matriarch of a Texas family. HBO showed clips of the series on-air and at a press tour last summer, and it looked promising, like a comedic "Dallas." "Bad Road" certainly has decent pedigree: It comes from producers Harry Thomason and Linda Bloodworth-Thomason, the team behind the '80s hit "Designing Women."

So I was surprised and disappointed last month when news broke that HBO canceled "Bad Road" after filming six episodes and reportedly spending more than $25 million on the project. In addition, Carolyn Strauss, HBO Entertainment president, departed her post.

The combination of those developments made HBO appear to have an empty pantry and be rudderless.

After the "Bad Road" cancellation, the Thomasons began sending critics the completed episodes. Theories for the cancellation abound: With the Bush administration ending in January, a Texas-set comedy would quickly grow stale; HBO doesn't appreciate Southern humor; the comedy was too broad for the highbrow network.

HBO is in a down cycle, but it's possible for the pay-cable network to get back on track. It's still the dominant premium channel (HBO has 28.9 million subscribers compared to 15.5 million for Showtime, according to Media Week), and fans will flock to "Big Love," "Entourage" and "Conchords" when those shows return.

HBO made its first steps on the road to recovery this week, replacing Strauss. On Wednesday HBO named Sue Naegle, former co-head of the television department at United Talent Agency, as its new Entertainment president, overseeing all series programming and specials.