Tuesday, 20 May 2008
Utah County Weather: Despite heat, experts don't expect floods Print E-mail
DAILY HERALD   

Janice Peterson

High temperatures over the weekend and through the next few days are helping to melt snow in the mountains, but meteorologists are not expecting flooding problems any time soon.

Brian McInerney, hydrologist for the National Weather Service, said water flows are rising steadily throughout Utah County, but a cold front this week will help to stem any flooding.

"Flows are going to continue to increase until Wednesday," he said. "And until that point, nothing is going to reach flooding levels."

McInerney said the high temperatures have reduced the snowpack in the mountains, but the cold temperatures and precipitation in the latter part of the week will hold the snowpack steady, so the rivers and basins will not increase as rapidly.

Meteorologist Catherine Kruse with the National Weather Service said there will be a dramatic temperature change through the Memorial Day weekend. While Tuesday's high temperatures are expected to be in the mid-90s, she said the high temperature on Wednesday will be in the low 60s.

Kruse said thunderstorms are expected, and some areas may receive up to one inch of rain before the storm passes. After Memorial Day, Kruse said the temperatures may warm up for good, though it is too soon to tell now.

The weather over the last few months has worked well for snowpack levels, McInerney said. A good combination of precipitation and temperatures in the winter months has been the key to preventing flooding now.

McInerney said the real winter weather, with cold temperatures and high precipitation, only lasted from mid-December through early February. If that weather had continued into March and April, the county would have had quite a bit of flooding now. Instead, he said, March and April were very dry, with only 50 percent of the normal precipitation.

McInerney said the weather helped to prevent an overly-large snowpack melting all at once, and the melting should now be more efficient. There is neither too much nor too little snowpack, and he said the sudden high temperatures now will help the snow to melt at once without losing too much to evaporation.

"It was three to five degrees colder than normal [in March and April]," he said. "And with that cold, we kept the snow that we had and didn't start melting early."

The water levels are high and fast, and Provo River is flowing at about 1800 cubic feet per second above Jordanelle Reservoir. McInerney said the possibility for flooding exists if at least two inches of rain falls in a short period of time, but that possibility is a long way off.

While the potential for floods can be a danger in Utah County, McInerney said a bigger concern should be for residents who fall into the rivers. The water is flowing very quickly for a swimmer who needs to get out of it, and the cold temperatures from melted mountain snow could induce hypothermia in moments.

"That's kind of the bigger threat to our population, is falling in the river when we have high flows like this," he said.

Sgt. Tom Hodgson of the Utah County Sheriff's Department agreed with the danger of falling into rivers at this point in the season. Hodgson said some of his deputies noticed that the Spanish Fork River had risen Monday just in the time they were in the area on a call. The department will also be holding a swift-water training next week while the danger is at its peak.

Hodgson said the fast, cold water can incapacitate a person readily, and the debris in the water can be hazardous as well. When a person is floating in water flowing at 1800 cubic feet per second, the person has no control over which direction they move, and it is hard to avoid large objects in the water.

"It only takes a split second for a life-changing experience near a river like that," he said.

Hodgson said there are reports every year of someone in trouble in a river or canal, and his department has already responded to a fisherman swept away by water in Hobble Creek. The trouble can come from someone falling into the river, or just not taking the correct precautions, like tubing without a lifejacket.

"That could be a grave error if you happen to get knocked off the tube," Hodgson said.

The possibility of a fatal accident is high at the start of the summer season, and especially on Memorial Day weekend when people want to be out with their families. Hodgson said the best way to avoid any trouble is to be aware of surroundings and watch any children, and to avoid unnecessary risks near water.

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