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MIAMI -- As the death toll and flooding wrought by Gustav rise in the Caribbean, the hurricane-turned-tropical storm is expected to regain strength Thursday and move between Jamaica and Cuba toward the Cayman Islands.
All eyes are on the Gulf Coast, where millions of people still scarred after three years by Hurricane Katrina's devastation have begun preparing for Gustav's possible arrival as a major hurricane by Labor Day. "Everybody learned a lesson about staying, so the highways will be twice as packed this time," Steve Weaver of New Orleans told the Associated Press. Weaver, 82, and wife Helen tried to ride out Hurricane Katrina in 2004 and wound up being rescued from the roof of their home by a Coast Guard helicopter. This time, Weaver said, they plan to flee as soon as Gustav becomes a clear threat. New Orleans officials reviewed blueprints of escape routes and said they would institute a mandatory evacuation order if Hurricane Gustav moves within 72 hours of striking the city as a Category 3 or stronger. That could happen as early as Friday, when forecasters project Gustav to intensify over warm, deep waters near Cuba and in the Gulf. "What we can say for sure is a strong system is going to move into the Gulf this weekend," hurricane specialist Jamie Rhome said from the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. "It's simply too early yet to say exactly who will get hit and how bad it might be." The latest official forecast track shows Gustav riding westward between Cuba and Jamaica and regaining hurricane status at some point Thursday. It would then plow through the Cayman Islands on Friday, curve through western Cuba on Saturday and emerge in the Gulf as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Current projections have New Orleans in the center of the long-term forecast cone, which is subject to significant error. Landfall is possible late Monday or early Tuesday. As of late Wednesday, the Panhandle was the only part of Florida that remained in the five-day forecast cone. Gustav's track looks nothing like the path of Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall as a tropical storm near Hallandale Beach on Aug. 25, 2005, before growing into a massive hurricane in the Gulf and striking New Orleans on Aug. 29. Katrina's storm surge overwhelmed levees and flooded 80 percent of the city, causing more than 1,800 deaths and billions of dollars in damages. With Friday marking the three-year anniversary of Katrina's landfall in New Orleans, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has made sweeping improvements to the levee system, but gaps still remain. "There is always the possibility if it comes from the right direction, and if it is large enough to create storm surge in the realm of Katrina, that there could be overtopping" of levees, Regional Levee Director Robert Turner Jr. said. In anticipation of a Gulf Coast strike, the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it had 137 truckloads of water, 203 truckloads of food, 267 truckloads of blankets and cots, 141 truckloads of tarps and 478 emergency generators in place and ready for distribution throughout the region. Oil prices jumped to above $119 a barrel, and Shell Oil and other companies began evacuating workers from offshore oil rigs in the Gulf that produce about a quarter of the country's crude oil and most of its natural gas. White House spokesman Tony Fratto told reporters aboard Air Force One on Wednesday that President Bush was monitoring the storm's progress and keeping in touch with emergency managers. "FEMA officials from throughout the Gulf region are reviewing all the plans and procedures in advance of the storm's potential landfall next week," Fratto said on the flight from the president's Crawford, Texas, ranch to Washington. Preparations were also under way in Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. (EDITORS: STORY CAN END HERE) Authorities evacuated 30,000 people from low-lying areas in eastern Cuba, where heavy downpours had already caused waist-high floodwater in some areas. Fidel Castro pledged in an essay in the Communist Party newspaper Granma that "no one will be forgotten" by the government if the storm causes casualties there. Gustav was blamed for at least 22 deaths and widespread power and telephone outages in Hispaniola. Haitian authorities said 14 people were killed in floods and mudslides, including a young girl swept off a bridge by floodwater. More death reports could surface in coming days as authorities inspect washed-out bridges and homes. Eight people, including two infants, were killed in a landslide in the Dominican Republic. "They were all members of a family that had taken shelter since Tropical Storm Fay and left to go home because they thought the danger had passed," said Luis Luna Paulino, director of the Dominican civil defense agency. In Jacmel, Haiti, where Gustav made landfall Tuesday with 90 mph winds, residents began to survey the damage on Wednesday. The streets were filled with "dead cows, goats and chickens," said Danny Pye, who runs an orphanage in the town. "It's pretty bad," Pye said. "There are easily hundreds of homes without roofs on them. Everyone is going without food." Pye ventured out in a four-wheel-drive truck looking for rice to buy. He said the 23 children at his orphanage were safe but going "cabin crazy" in their flooded home. "They want to get out," Pye said. "It's still raining here, and we have been taking water out by the buckets." ------ (Miami Herald staff writer Lesley Clark contributed to this report.) ------ (c) 2008, The Miami Herald. 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