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If a UVU professor and his prediction model are right, not even a rabbit's foot or four-leaf clover will help Republican John McCain move into the White House.
The likelihood of Democrat Barack Obama winning is 99.99 percent, says UVU professor Jay DeSart, and he's got history and the numbers to prove it. DeSart and partner Thomas Holbrook, of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, called a close victory for President George Bush in 2004 and a neck-and-neck win for Al Gore in 2000. (OK, that one is still up for debate.) DeSart's work -- quoted by the likes of the Wall Street Journal -- gives Obama a 354-184 electoral victory on Nov. 4, even though Utah will likely give McCain a comfortable statewide victory with its five electoral votes. DeSart's projection relies heavily on state -- not national -- polling results because of the importance of the Electoral College. It's a model that wasn't nearly as viable 12 years ago as it is now. But with people demanding more information, pollsters have responded by coming out with more sophisticated data that is up-to-the-minute. Of course, even if the projection is accurate, it's not taken well in Utah. Friends say they hope he's wrong "at the same time they hope that I'm right for my case." Students groan in class when he tells them the projections. (Obama will also win with nearly 53 percent of the popular vote, he says.) Is there any chance McCain might win? "I suppose anything is possible, but at this point it looks like a very big hill for him to climb," DeSart said. "The only thing he has to hope for at this point is the infamous October surprise." The model is always being tuned and this year includes a national poll variable not used before. But other methods of tweaking have been discarded because they made the prediction less accurate. Aside from the Wall Street Journal, DeSart and Holbrook's work has cropped up everywhere from the U.S. to Poland to Denmark. Still not convinced? Would you wager a bet? "It's probably not wise," says DeSart before pausing. "That sounds like I'm bragging. I think my colleagues realize this is a fairly accurate model."
• On the Web: To follow DeSart's predictions, visit research.uvsc.edu/DeSart/forecasting/ Other projections: • fivethirtyeight.com -- Obama-351, McCain-187 • pollster.com -- Obama-320, McCain-155, Toss-up-63 • realclearpolitics.com -- Obama-304, McCain-158, Toss-up-76 |
