Those challenging U.S. Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, for his seat in Congress are confident they will have an impact on the race, but they differ on whether immigration issues will remain the focus of debate.

Come November, Cannon -- who recently bested businessman John Jacob for the Republican nomination in Utah's 3rd Congressional District -- will be on the ballot against Democrat Christian Burridge, Libertarian Philip Hall and Jim Noorlander of the Constitution Party.

An exit poll found that in the Cannon-Jacob race, 88 percent of voters considered the illegal immigration debate either "very important" (54 percent) or "somewhat important" (34 percent).

There are competing immigration reform proposals in Congress right now -- a House of Representatives measure that focuses solely on enforcement and a Senate measure, favored by President Bush, that includes a guest worker program and a shot at citizenship.

While that debate is likely to remain lively for the rest of the year, it may not be the central issue in the 3rd District campaign any more.

"I don't think I'm going to focus on it as much," Burridge said. "It is an important issue, but relative to other problems that we have, it's just not a central issue. I'm not interested in making immigration a wedge issue."

The issues Burridge said he's interested in include health insurance for small businesses, veterans' support issues, and ensuring federal tuition and student loan programs keep up with rising tuition costs.

Hall, the Libertarian, also said that other issues should become more prominent than immigration.

"It's a big deal and the voters have been thinking a lot about that, but I don't think it's going to be as big an issue as it was," he said.

"I haven't heard a lot of talk about the national debt, the unfunded mandates that are out there. ... And the war wasn't a big issue either. There should be some more discussion about that."

The Constitution Party's Noorlander, however, said that immigration will remain in the spotlight.

"I personally think it's going to be the No. 1 topic," he said. "It affects everything in your entire life. It affects education, the policies of the United States, health care, the crime rate.

"If it's not resolved, it will be the downfall of our nation -- because it will increase the social welfare state."

All of Cannon's challengers will have to increase their respective parties' share of the vote drastically to make any waves.

In 2002, Cannon won easily with 67.4 percent of the vote. The Democratic candidate got 29 percent and a Libertarian snagged 3.6 percent.

Cannon's victory margin in 2004 was slightly smaller: 63.4 percent. The Democratic candidate got 32.5 percent; the Constitution Party, 1.9 percent; the Libertarian, 1.4 percent; and a Personal Choice Party contender rolled up 0.9 percent.

Burridge said defeat is not preordained. The last two Democratic candidates, he said, didn't raise much money and didn't campaign full time, which he vowed to do. So far his campaign has raised between $30,000 and $40,000, he said.

He said former Congressman Bill Orton proved a Democrat could win in Utah County and that redistricting since then added a lot of Democratic voters to the district.

Cannon ousted Orton in 1996, 51 percent to 47 percent. In Utah County, Cannon received 60 percent of the vote that year.

Still, said Burridge, "it's absolutely doable, especially under the new redistricting plan where we now have west Salt Lake City, which is highly Democratic.

"The data that I have seen shows that over half the people are unaffiliated. They're swing voters. ... People in Utah are independent-minded."

Noorlander -- who used to be active in the Utah County Republican Party -- also felt confident about the race. His campaign may find support from those who voted for Jacob in the GOP primary, because he and Jacob voiced similar stances on immigration.

"I expect to do very well in this election," he said, because people are looking for options beyond the two majority parties.

"People are looking in that direction because they're looking for leadership. This is not just my sentiment. You can feel it in the air."

Hall was not as optimistic.

"The main thing with third parties is to have some kind of opposition," he said. "I don't really have a chance at winning. But at least I'll get a few issues out there."

Brigham Young University political scientist Quin Monson helped conduct the exit poll and said voters aren't likely to choose a third party candidate over Cannon, even if they disagree with him on immigration. While Cannon has said the Senate plan wouldn't pass, he also favors reforms that make some provision for illegal immigrants already in the country and has argued that immigrant labor is critical to the U.S. economy.

"You would wonder if there's a group of voters that is so unhappy with Cannon that they would vote against him in the fall," Monson said. "I don't get that sense. They would have to be pretty disenchanted.

"A third party candidacy is always a difficult affair. There's a set that may prefer the Constitution Party candidate on that issue, but they'll realize it's throwing away their vote."

The outlook isn't quite as dark for Burridge, although the road ahead is still daunting.

He's staked out conservative positions on social issues like abortion and gambling and has roots in the district, which will help, Monson said.

"It sounds like he's the right kind of Democrat to have a chance from a policy and ideological perspective, but this state and this district, in particular, are pretty lopsided as far as Republican identifiers," Monson said. "This guy, to have any shot, has to get a pretty sizable proportion of Republicans to vote for him."

That means about 25 percent of those who identify as "strong Republicans" and about 40 percent of those who call themselves moderately Republican or independent -- a "tall order," but not an impossible one, since U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, has managed to pull it off in the 2nd District.

Burridge will also need to raise at least $200,000 to get a real start in the race, Monson said.

"Had John Jacob defeated Chris Cannon last week, I would say a lot of things are possible," he said. "Now that Cannon has survived the primary, I'd say it's more difficult. He's still got to overcome the incumbency by raising enough money so that he's not invisible."

This story appeared in The Daily Herald on page A1.