President Bush's approval ratings are hovering somewhere near Death Valley, the "surge" update received mixed reviews and a majority of Americans still believe the war in Iraq isn't winnable.

But the problem isn't the war, says U.S. Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, the problem is the message.

Take, for example, Gen. David Petraeus's congressional testimony on the effects of a 30,000-troop increase designed to give the squabbling Iraq government time to reach some benchmarks.

Despite the upbeat report, Cannon says the general could have been more adamant.

"I don't think he pointed out how well we're doing, killing the bad guys over there," he said during a wide-ranging interview on Thursday.

A firm believer in the war, even if a majority of the country isn't, Cannon said the right thing isn't necessarily what constituents want.

"Sometimes you have to tell them why it's important," he said.

That belief is evinced in a recent trip to Kazakhstan. Though Cannon was there to speak at a nonproliferation conference, he also notes that the country is moving forward in communication technology and international trade with Russia, China and the United States. All this in a region that is 47 percent Muslim, 44 percent Russian Orthodox and 9 percent "other."

If Kazakhstan can do it, he says, so can Iraq, which is split between three indurated groups: Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites. Not that it will be easy. Even if the surge drawdown is complete by next summer as planned, even if the Iraq government can stop taking vacations in the middle of the mother of all knock-down drag-outs, even if Iran, Syria and al-Qaida don't stir the pot, it's going to be years before Americans can start leaving en masse. Pressed, Cannon says he sees 20,000 to 40,000 troops still there in two or three years.

"That's a wild guess," he says. "That's a hopeful guess."

The guessing game

It's also anyone's guess who will be the next president, though like any good politician, Cannon has an opinion.

In the GOP, Rudy Giuliani has peaked already, leaving the nomination to Mitt Romney, he said. But Romney's membership in the LDS Church is a very personal thing that will be difficult for the candidate to explain, said Cannon, who is also a member. He said he believes it's different from John F. Kennedy's Catholicism that was essentially handled by a speech that he would not take orders from the pope.

And Romney's opponentfi Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Dismissing other Democratic candidates, including top fundraiser Barack Obama (who he referred to as a potential vice president), Cannon sees another razor-thin margin in the votes next November with Clinton becoming the nation's first woman president.

"It will be an ugly, bloody, tough election," he said.

Bloody nose

After more than a decade ruling both houses of Congress, Republicans' noses were bloodied last fall when Democrats took them both back. But instead of regrouping, the GOP continues to reel as "sex scandal" becomes synonymous with "congressional Republicans."

Rep. Mark Foley, and Sens. Larry Craig and David Vitter, Republicans all, are high-profile names connected to tales of page scandals, bathroom shenanigans and romps with prostitutes, respectively.

The mess isn't lost on Cannon, though he defends the party as one that doesn't put up with problems when they come to light. He pointed to Rep. William Jefferson, D-La., who is indicted on federal bribery charges and is famous for stashing $90,000 in his freezer but refuses to step down.

"There's a difference between Republicans and Democrats, in that we throw our guys overboard immediately," he said. Foley has resigned, Craig said he'd resign Sept. 30 then said he could change his mind, and Vitter admits to a "very serious sin" but not that kind.

And of course there was the high-profile resignations of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and Bush confidante Karl Rove.

With leadership in turmoil and suddenly in the minority, the party has to get back on message, Cannon said, and the best way to do that may be having a strong opposition. A lot of colleagues shake their heads in disbelief when they hear that, but without opposition, people tend to get lazy, he said, quickly following up with, "That doesn't mean I have to support a Democrat."

Gathering support

Cannon will need some Democratic support if immigration reform is going to pass.

The perpetual hot-button issue has a chance to come back before the end of the year and may contain the ideals of Cannon's immigration bill that focuses on agriculture jobs.

That bill would create a pilot program to give undocumented workers who have been in the country for more than two years legal immigration status.

Those in the program would have to work an ag job for half the year for more than three years before leaving for non-ag jobs.

Opponents label it "amnesty," while Cannon says it's a way to streamline the green card process. As to whether Congress and the White House will actually come up with a consensus, Cannon answers: "Yeah." Then a pause. "Probably." Another pause. "It could if we have the will."

This story appeared in The Daily Herald on page A1.