The rumors of John McCain's Utah demise are at least slightly exaggerated.

Media reports citing Barack Obama's sizeable fundraising advantage only show part of the picture. It is true the Democrats' presumptive nominee has outraised the GOP contender over the entire campaign -- $706,046 to $595,320. But trends are everything in politics, and a closer look at the numbers shows a story more murky than Utah Lake.

Conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney simply drained Utah pocketbooks in his attempt to secure the nomination. (He took nearly 90 percent of the Utah vote in the primary.)

Romney and McCain were also bitter rivals in the primary races, putting McCain on many Utahns' bad side. So it's no wonder he had raised only about $160,000 here by February, when Romney suspended his campaign.

The first thing to look at in a McCain-Obama race then, is fundraising after Romney dropped out to see if the state's Republican base forgave the GOP pick. Beginning in March, Utahns gave about the same amount to each presumptive nominee through Aug. 20 -- $433,470 to McCain, $431,659 to Obama.

That's about as close to a dead heat as it gets. But a closer look at when the money came in tells some other stories.

•¬ According to Federal Election Commission reports, McCain took it on the chin for two more months after Romney suspended his campaign, bringing in less than $20,000 each month. But in May, things turned around in a big way, with Utahns giving $257,862 to McCain when Romney and President George Bush came to town for a fundraiser.

• Obama had a huge March, bringing in $119,699. But he was in a battle royale with Democratic opponent Sen. Hillary Clinton until June, and his fundraising here has also been up and down. But if you count just the last three months, Obama has out-raised McCain by about $47,000.

The fact that there is even a discussion about who is raising the most money in a state that voted 71 percent for Bush in 2004 is unexpected.

"A lot unexpected," said BYU political science professor Quin Monson. "It does suggest that the Obama campaign is just really good at the fundraising game."

And fundraising, while important, is a lousy indicator of success. Take someone like Jason Chaffetz in the 3rd District. He beat a much better-funded candidate for the GOP nomination. On the other hand, look at Rep. Jim Matheson in the 2nd District, who keeps so much money on hand that it scares most of the competition away.

"People that raise a lot of money still lose elections," Monson said. "People that don't raise any money don't often win."