On a hot August day in front of federal and local nabobs, John Inglish invoked the mother of all appeals.

They're building a commuter rail for the children, said UTA's general manager. For the future.

But will a project that will likely cost close to a billion dollars really have any meaningful impact on traffic flow in a county that will reach a million people by 2020? Or will your children still be waiting in traffic, watching a statistically small number of people roll by on the rails?

Would more roads, more buses or even higher gas prices be a more cost-effective way of handling transportation growth?

There is exactly such an experiment going on north of Salt Lake City, and one watchdog group is not impressed.

"We can put an end to this debate once and for all," said Drew Chamberlain with the Coalition for Accountable Government.

"I don't think UTA is going to be very happy."

They seem happy

To hear the Utah Transit Authority tell it, things couldn't be better with its newly born FrontRunner North commuter rail system between Salt Lake City and Ogden. Ridership was above expectations in June at about 7,800 trips per day. Riders have given it rave reviews. They've got federal accolades for their efforts and federal dollars for expansion of four light-rail TRAX lines and FrontRunner South.

Media reports are glowing, politicians are smiling.

But Chamberlain is blunt. "It's a fraud."

That claim is made on the basis of cost per vehicle removed from the freeway.

The perfect experiment?

Those 7,800 trips per day compare to about 140,000 daily car trips along the same stretch of Interstate 15. (There are 126,000 daily trips between Provo and Salt Lake City.) If every one of the riders previously drove a vehicle, FrontRunner removed 5 percent of the traffic from the road at a cost of $611 million plus ongoing costs paid for through taxes and boarding fees.

Chamberlain said his research has shown that about a thousand of those 7,800 riders came from buses, meaning an even smaller percentage of traffic was newly taken off the freeway.

In contrast, Legacy Highway opens Sept. 13, and the 14-mile stretch through Davis County is projected to carry up to 30,000 vehicles a day. The cost of Legacy is roughly the same as Frontrunner North.

"We have the perfect experiment. We have rail and then three months later we have the freeway open. And both ironically at the same cost," Chamberlain said.

The car dealer

Chamberlain has tried to speak to lawmakers, UTA executives and the public about his concerns.

He's a former copy-machine repairman now in the used-car business. (He's unrepentant when asked whether that skews his views.)

He points to recent numbers from the Utah Department of Transportation that show for the first time that traffic on state roads has dropped. The numbers fell by 3 percent, remarkably close to what FrontRunner takes off that road. All it took was $4-per-gallon gasoline.

"It's a car problem, so it has to be a car solution," he said of I-15 congestion. "That's the only thing that's ever worked."

Numbers obtained from UTA show that the likely maximum for ridership during a standing-room-only commute would be about 30,000 people. But that would require a substantial investment in new train cars, and the demand is no where near high enough for that.

The transit solution

One transit expert says that the numbers for rail aren't always obvious.

"It's more of a quality of life issue that maybe isn't measured in pure dollars and cents," said Chad Eccles, a transit planner with the Mountainland Association of Governments.

The business community, when looking to relocate, often looks for places with multiple transportation options, including rail, he said.

"I can't quantify it. ... But I know that that has been a factor," he said when asked for examples.

At the recent groundbreaking for FrontRunner South, leaders from multiple chambers of commerce were on-hand to praise the project.

"This will really boost us," said Steve Densley, president of the Provo-Orem Chamber of Commerce.

Plus there's the maintenance question. Up front, costs are much higher for rail, Eccles concedes, but the rails are good for up to 50 years without a major overhaul. Roads, on the other hand, require constant repair.

More roads?

Chamberlain's solution to traffic problems is to build more roads, instead of sinking money into solutions that have questionable impact on congestion. Mountain View Corridor, for example, should be fast-tracked instead of waiting years for funding.

"The real losers are us, because we sit in traffic," he said. "By using money for rail, we are ensuring gridlock in the future."

Eccles counters that it takes much more space to build roads. "How many Legacys do you build? We can only build so much in terms of asphalt," he said.

Plus, the voters have spoken with the approval of a quarter-cent sales tax to help fund transit, as well as roads.

"It seemed to be something that people wanted," he said. "The tax passed by 69 percent."