Gov. Jon Huntsman's proposed budget makes clearer what has been growing more obvious by the day: Utah is having a rougher 2008 than was thought possible even two months ago. And 2009 is shaping up to be even rockier.
Yet it's important to keep the financial picture in perspective. Utah is in better shape than most other states and will be in a good position when the economy recovers.
First, however, the bad news: The state is headed toward $350 million in red ink for the current fiscal year, which began July 1. And that's despite a special session of the Legislature in September that slashed $272 million from the current spending plan.
Also, Huntsman's 2009-2010 budget is $1 billion less than the current spending plan. That dip will be tough enough, but even optimists wonder whether things will get worse. The current budget developed a $350 million hole over just the last two months, and the economic picture seems to be deteriorating. The governor and the Legislature may be facing an even bigger fiscal challenge by the time the next session wraps up in March.
Some lawmakers have called for a special session to take up spending problems now. The rationale seems to be that lawmakers should get out the ax before some of the money is spent, and then come back in the regular session to keep trimming. Huntsman seems disinclined to call a session. Some observers think there isn't enough time for the lawmakers to lay the groundwork for such a complex and likely contentious task.
Whatever is finally decided, here's one suggestion: The Legislature should drop all "message bills" and other time-wasters this year. In the past, lawmakers have spent too many resources on bills designed solely to score political points. This year, too much is at stake. Lawmakers ought to pledge to shun any gimmicks or grandstanding. They need to stick with the essentials of the state's business. Huntsman did sound a positive note on transportation. That's important, because the biggest transportation project upcoming is a major overhaul of Interstate 15. The project is essential for Utah Valley's economic well-being in the long run. But the state Department of Transportation recently put a hold on spending, leading to some doubt about whether the I-15 work would continue.
The governor, however, wants to jump-start the state economy, and one of the ways would be to use $50 million in cash to bond for $2.5 billion in road projects. That could prime the pump for I-15.
The bonding itself shouldn't be a major concern (assuming you can leverage that much money with so little down payment). The state's transportation blueprint already envisions using bonds to pay for highway upgrades.
The caveat is that Huntsman is proposing to get the cash by raising vehicle registration fees. Utahns already pay a lot of fees. And it's unfair to keep hitting drivers for improvements to roads, which benefit everyone. Here's hoping a better funding method can be found.
The Washington rumor mill also is saying the Obama administration and Congress might be willing to fund infrastructure projects to stimulate the economy. One criticism of such schemes is that it takes years for road and bridge projects to be planned and designed before the first concrete is poured, meaning the stimulus often takes effect long after the need was identified. But Utah is ready to go right now. The studies have been done, the designs finished, the contracts signed. Utah is one place that a federal stimulus would have immediate effect.
Also, Utah is doing better than most of its peers. Overall, other states will have to slash $32 billion from their current budgets. Then they, too, will have to cut next year's budgets, to the tune of at least $65 billion, the National Conference of State Legislatures reported this week.
And that's after they've already trimmed $40 billion the start of their fiscal year, which is July 1 for all but four states.
In the long run, economic bad times help purge excesses and failures. Utah's state government will undergo the same process. So there is a silver lining, even if not an extraordinarily bright one. The lack of revenue will force both the executive and legislative branches to take harder looks at what they want to do and why.
Useful lessons will be learned. Less useful programs will be dropped; other programs will be made more efficient. Utah still possesses many advantages that will help it return to prosperity in the years ahead.
Remember that the next time you're feeling depressed about the economy.
Posted in Editorial on Monday, December 8, 2008 11:00 pm
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