Midway through the 2008 legislative session, lawmakers are getting down to brass tacks, though they may want to opt for the slightly less expensive tin version.

Budget revenue numbers will be released Monday, and members of the leadership say previous projections are probably too optimistic by as much 20 percent. Teachers and transportation advocates shouldn't worry too much though, because the starting point was a billion-dollar surplus.

What it might mean is that any immediate tax relief is in question. Before the session, Senate and House leaders said they wanted tax cuts in the $100 million range, most likely from property taxes which have spiked in the past three years as home values soared.

But analysts are finding that the state economy is following the country's downward trend, albeit much more gracefully:

• A report just released by the National Association of Realtors shows Utah's home sales down by 33 percent from the same time last year.

• Utah's microscopic unemployment rate has risen from 2.6 percent to 3.3 percent. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Once the rate drops below about 3 percent, employers have a hard time finding workers and production suffers.

• To combat a possible recession, the federal government has approved a massive stimulus package that would put thousands in the pockets of families, but will cost Utah $65 million in tax revenue.

Like most years, the first half of the session has been dominated by policy matters like immigration and crime. But once the numbers are out, the horse trading begins.

"A lot of people will realize not everything is going to get funding," said Rep. Becky Lockhart, R-Provo, who's been a lawmaker for nearly a decade.

While she hasn't seen any early revenue projections, she expects it will be much like her first few years in office when there was a little extra money, "nothing special, but nothing awful."

The problem, she said, is that over the past few years it's been like Christmas what with multi-billion dollar surpluses. Legislators made big tax cuts and spent money like it was going out of style on education and roads to compensate for the lean years of 2001-2004.

Sen. Curt Bramble, R-Provo, has compared the economic situation to a car going 80 mph in 65 mph zone. When it slows down from 80 mph to 70 mph, it's still exceeding the speed limit, but feels slower.