President Donald Trump’s discussions about renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, and potentially charging a border tax or fee, have some Utah business leaders concerned.

According to data from a fact sheet issued this month by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Mexico is Utah’s fourth largest export destination, coming in behind the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Canada. As for import destinations, Mexico sits on top. According to 2016 numbers, Mexico holds a 25.5 percent share of Utah’s total international commodity imports, and the value of those imports for 2016 comes in at $3.3 billion.

“We’ve also seen our Mexico exports grow over the last 10 years from $250 million to about $750 million. We want to see those Utah companies involved in international trade to be successful. We don’t want anything to disrupt the good things these business owners are doing,” said Derek Miller, president and CEO of the World Trade Center Utah.

In the Gardner report, the economic impacts of reduced trade with Mexico will result in losses across all factors. Even with just 15 percent export reduction, the business losses throughout the state are estimated to be more than $42 million. If there is an additional tax on imports of 20 percent, as Trump has suggested, the loss to Utah businesses will be more than $262 million and is estimated to result in more than 5,500 jobs.

Jaime Villagomez, president and CEO of NewLook International, Inc. in Salt Lake City, said he’s already seeing changes in his business. NewLook is a manufacturer of architectural and decorative concrete coatings, and has dealings all over the world.

“In regards to Mexico, I have just decided to close our office in Mexico. That doesn’t mean that we won’t support opportunities but I must admit that I didn’t feel as confident in the market potential with Trump’s rhetoric,” Villagomez said in an email while traveling. “While in Mexico at the end of December, there was already feelings of impending doom in Mexico, and the potential ramifications of Trump in office and the protectionist attitude.”

Miller added that over the last 10 years, Utah has become one of the fastest growing export states in the United States. According to a February WalletHub report, Utah is the seventh highest state that could potentially be impacted by trade disruptions. Thus, those Utah companies that deal in international trade are understandably nervous.

“Business craves predictability and stability, but we don’t have that internationally. Companies don’t know what the future will bring,” he said.

Additionally, if trade with Mexico is disrupted, it will have a ripple effect in all global markets. Miller explained that it is rare for trade to strictly be one direction, or for component and commodities to only make one trip over international borders. He used the example of the top Utah export to Mexico: safety airbag inflator system parts.

“Parts of those systems are constantly going back and forth between Mexico and Utah all the time. Those components are then combined to result in the final product,” he said. “Parts for many products come from all over the world and then are assembled together, then sent out to different parts of the world. It gives credence to the complexity of international trade.”

That said, Miller said NAFTA should be looked at and potentially updated to make sure free trade is happening fairly for all parties involved.

“It’s two decades old,” Miller said of NAFTA. “I’m certain it had elements that are outdated and need to be updated. For example, segments of the information technology industry didn’t even exist 20 years ago. And eBay sellers are selling all over the world, but when NAFTA was written, nobody was selling that way because eBay didn’t even exist.”

Another segment of the industry that is newer is the direct-selling essential oils industry. But Kirk Jowers, vice president of corporate relations and European markets at doTerra International, said he feels this industry will survive despite presidential posturing. doTerra deals directly with farmers in 46 countries, including Mexico, and sells its products in 100, Jowers said. The relationships the doTerra teams have created with these farmers makes him confident in the company’s future.

Still, he hopes free trade will continue.

“The U.S. thrives so well, because it interacts so freely with the rest of the world,” Jowers said.

Miller and Villagomez would agree. Miller hopes concerned business owners will write to Utah’s elected officials on the national level and share how vital international business is to Utah’s economy. He also hopes, like Villagomez, the federal government will shy away from protectionism.

“I’d say to the Oval Office, look to Utah as a model state involved in international trade. We have tons of small businesses competing in a free market on a global scale and winning. They’ve done this without protectionism,” Miller said. “It’s a testament to what Utah companies can do.”