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Utah County in ‘economic driver’s seat’ for the state

By Carley Porter daily Herald - | Mar 18, 2019

In 2018, Utah had one of the highest percentages of job growth in the United States at 3.7 percent.

The only other states to see that kind of growth were Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho and Washington — and Utah still topped all of them.

Five percent of that growth came from Utah County alone, which is why professional economist Natalie Gochnour said Utah County is driving the state’s economy.

Gochnour serves as the director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and as an associate dean in the David Eccles School of Business at the University of Utah. Additionally Gochnour serves as the Salt Lake Chamber chief economist.

The reason behind why Utah County experienced more growth than Salt Lake, Davis and Weber Counties, actually comes down to two things, she said. First, rapid growth in Utah’s tech and life science industries, much of which has happened specifically in Utah County. Second, Utah County has what Gochnour refers to as “significant buildable land supply.”

“If you look to the north of Utah County, in Salt Lake County, there’s a scarcity of available land to build on,” Gochnour said. “In Utah County you still have a lot of available land that is not on steep slopes, that’s not on wetlands, that’s privately held, so it’s buildable.”

One trend Gochnour advises being aware of is Utah’s “graying” population. Over the next 40 years, the 65 and up population will increase from one in 10 (current population) to one in five.

Gochnour said people should be prepared for the trend in the aging population.

“It changes housing preferences, it changes transportation, it changes what people consume and buy, it impacts our tax structure,” Gochnour said. “I think it’s a really significant trend that requires a lot of forethought and planning.”

In housing, Gochnour pointed at as an example, there will be less demand for homes with stairs. In transportation, Gochnour said it could have a positive effect for business like Uber and Lyft as less people over the age of 65 prefer to drive themselves different places.

“I think it’s mostly that you know your customer and your customer is going to be older,” Gochnour said.

Gochnour also addressed the common problem of student debt and said she doesn’t see it as insurmountable. Rather, she worries more about consumer debt, and debt that doesn’t contribute to long-term earning potential.

“With student debt, we’re investing in human capital, and there’s considerable evidence that as you invest in your education that the market will reward you,” Gochnour said. “I know (student debt) is overwhelming and could be a problem if it gets out of line, but I have not yet seen evidence that it’s contributing to a slow down or anything like that.”

Gochnour said people in Utah County should be excited about the growth its experiencing, but also that county leaders need to take this time to be wise.

“Recognize that now is the time to invest and to plan and to capitalize on really favorable economic conditions,” Gochnour said.

While it’s time to take advantage of opportunities, she said, it’s also the time to make sure things that should be preserved will be, she said.

“If there’s critical lands that need conserving, whether they be beautiful orchards, or viewsheds, or environmentally sensitive lands, historical valuable lands, now’s the time when those need to be preserved,” Gochnour said. “I think Utah County is extremely fortunate to be in the economic driver’s seat, so to speak, for our state, and I think it also carries a huge responsibility.”

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