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IN OUR VIEW: Preparing for the Big One

By Daily Herald - | May 5, 2008

When the earthquake — the Big One — hits Utah, will you be prepared?

We don’t want to spread panic. People are jittery enough already, what with war, terrorism, the economy and inflation rattling nerves around the globe. But the experts say it’s not a matter of whether but when.

A Feb. 21 earthquake that damaged hundreds of homes in Wells, Nev., has been followed by other shocks in that state. Worst hit is the tiny town of Mogul: Since Feb. 28, more than 1,000 earthquakes have rolled through, and some folks have taken to sleeping in their cars.

There are signs Utah Valley people are a bit on edge, too. A Daily Herald news story of April 26 reported that there’s a surge of interest in earthquake insurance in Utah Valley. For instance, one Orem insurance agent said he normally gets at most a call a month about earthquake insurance. But since the Wells quake he has received between 25 and 50 calls a month, with half or more actually purchasing a policy.

That might be a good idea. According to a range of state authorities, the Wasatch Front is on borrowed time because of its unstable ground. About 700 earthquakes hit Utah every year, though we don’t feel most of them. Scientists have been warning for years that we have to prepared for one that could rock the whole region.

Underneath us, the Wasatch Fault runs 240 miles from Malad, Idaho, to Gunnison, then right through Salt Lake Valley and down through Utah County. In April, the U.S. Geological Survey published new hazard maps estimating that a quake of 7.4 magnitude — a large but not huge temblor — could devastate several Wasatch Fault segments at once, a worse scenario than ever expected before.

Scientists say a big earthquake, of a magnitude from 6.5 to 7.5, has hit on average every 400 years. The last one hit 600 years ago, meaning the next big quake is 200 years overdue.

So what would happen if a 7.5 magnitude quake were to ripple along the Wasatch Fault, through Salt Lake City and Utah Valley?

It would not only rock the ground, but liquefy wet, sandy soil, turning into a sort of quicksand that would pull down other houses. In Utah Valley alone, 6,000 buildings could crumble, with thousands more damaged; the toll of deaths and injuries in older student apartment buildings alone could be devastating. Highways would crack, and bridges on I-15 might collapse. Ruptured gas and electric lines might spark fires, adding to the chaos. With highways cut, and police and fire stations in ruins, help could be slow in coming.

If the Jordanelle Dam and Deer Creek dams broke, a torrent of water, mud, boulders and debris would thunder down Provo Canyon and smash into what was left of the city below.

One predication estimated 7,600 people would die and damages would reach $18 billion.

Too scary? According to the experts, not scary enough, because many see Utah as too lackadaisical in meeting this threat.

Step One in preparing for such a disaster is to accept the fact that it’s possible and then educate yourself and assemble the necessary emergency supplies.

Much is being done to harden Utah against an earthquake calamity, and the Utah State Seismic Commission continues to evaluate the issue. But the scope of needs is vast. Following the commission’s recommendation, for example, the state funded a reinforcement of the University of Utah’s Marriott Library to protect it against earthquake damage. The cost was $45 million. Multiply that by the number of older homes, office buildings and schools across the state, and the expense becomes staggering. In the last session, the Legislature blanched at the prospect.

Another major reinforcement job — shoring up the state capitol building — has just been completed.

But much more needs to be done. Experts say failing to prepare will be more costly than preventive measures.

Are you worried enough about an earthquake to take steps to survive it? Will you and your family have food to eat and water to drink? Will you have shelter and proper clothing? What about cash?

We would hazard a guess that Utahns may now be better prepared in greater proportion than residents of other states in part because of the influence of the LDS Church, which has strongly emphasized preparedness over the years. Yet many have not taken heed.

They should. This is not a matter of religion. It’s science.

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