In other news, water is wet, the sky is blue and everybody is undefeated in the Big 12.

Everybody is flying around, everybody is healthy and every position group is the deepest it’s ever been.

If you believe what Cougar coaches and players have said, everything is awesome heading into Game 1. Nobody blames the coaches and players for putting a positive spin on everything. It’s just not exactly … reality.

No one really knows how the 2023 season will turn out, not by a long shot. In addition to the pressure of a new season, the Cougars have to live up to the “Power Five” tag as a member of the Big 12.

Nate Edwards/BYU Photo

If it walks like a P5 and talks like a P5, it had better win like a P5.

To balance the message, we present “Hype vs. Reality,” a way for us to show the different scenarios that could play out for BYU football this year.

Buckle up, Buttercup.

Sometimes, reality can be harsh.

Hype: Aaron Roderick is a quarterback whisperer and new starter Kedon Slovis will return to the form we saw a few years ago at USC.

Nate Edwards/BYU Photo

Reality: Slovis has drawn rave reviews from teammates and coaches alike, not just on the field as QB1 but off the field as a true leader. Slovis has never played for the offensive coordinator he committed to during his career. There were changes to that coaching spot at USC when he came out of high school and at Pitt after he transferred. His comfort level and confidence with Roderick and the unique culture in Provo seems to be really, really high. If Roderick can turn his third straight quarterback into an NFL draft choice, he’s truly a quarterback whisperer.

What would stand in the way? It’s not every year that BYU needs to replace its best offensive player (wide receiver Puka Nacua), a three-year starter at quarterback (Jaren Hall), its top two running backs (Christopher Brooks and Lopini Katoa) and three starters on the offensive line (Blake Freeland, Harris LaChance and Clark Barrington). There are a lot of new pieces that need to mesh together for Slovis to put up good numbers.

Hype: Jay Hill’s new defense is going to be more aggressive and produce more sacks and turnovers.

Reality: In theory, sure. The players have all talked about how they love being more aggressive in Hill’s offense, but aggression brings risk. Last year’s problems on defense didn’t stem from giving up big plays, instead torturing Cougar fans with death by a thousand paper cuts (long drives and unchecked third down conversions). Does Hill have the right players in place to make his defense work? He’s close, but there are some concerns with a rebuilt defensive line and injuries at safety. More important than sacks and turnovers will be stops. Getting the opponents off the field and the ball back for your offense can turn the tide in a lot of games this season.

Hype: The offense line is better than it was last year.

Reality: That’s what we’ve been hearing from coaches all fall camp. There has been a influx of talent and experience from the transfer portal, for sure, to replace guys like Freeland, LaChance and Barrington. In all honesty, I thought last year’s line was overrated. The rushing numbers against P5 competition weren’t very good and the failures on short yardage and fourth downs are at least partially due to what the offensive line was doing (or wasn’t doing). I think BYU is deeper on the offensive line this season, which will be a big plus during a difficult Big 12 schedule. Better? There are many factors that go into making that kind of judgement. We’ll see.

Hype: BYU has playmakers all over its offense and will average better than 30 points per game.

Reality: Potentially, absolutely. But so far no one on the offense strikes me as the second coming of Nacua. He was a unique talent that is turning heads with the Rams right now, to no one’s surprise that saw him play at Orem High or BYU. The running backs, led by Aidan Robbins, Deon Smith and freshman LJ Martin, are all new to the program. Tight end Isaac Rex appears to be much healthier than last season, and that’s a big plus. The wide receiver rotation is deep but who does Slovis look for in critical situations? The offense really depends on the effectiveness of Slovis as a drop-back passer. He’s not the running threat BYU has had in Zac Wilson and Hall, so the run game has to be good to set up the passing game to hit big plays, which is the way that Roderick likes to call the offense.

Hype: The defensive line is much better than it was last year:

Reality: The transfer portal certainly brought a lot more experience and talent with Isaiah Bagnah, Jackson Cravens and David Latu and you would expect the holdovers to be one year better, too. If Atunaisa Mahe is healthy, he can be a force at defensive tackle. Hill said there will likely be more players rotating at defensive line than any other position, which should keep guys fresh. If you see more sacks and tackles for loss from this group, that would be optimal. Hill also has talked about being “gap sound,” and that’s going to be a challenge for this team in the Big 12.

Hype: BYU’s new approach to strength and conditioning will limit what has been a rash of injuries.

Reality: The Cougars have invested a lot of money and personnel into trying to keep their players healthy, both physically and mentally. College football is a physical sport and injuries happen. It seems that BYU has had more than it’s fair share of key injuries over the past several years, so maybe it’s time for a break from the football gods. So far, two players — safety Micah Harper and running back Hinckley Ropati — have been lost for the season. BYU coaches said this was a very physical camp and are pleased at how they came out of it health-wise, so it’s a good start. The sports scientists and staff will be put to the test as the Cougars learn about extended travel in the Big 12 as well.

Hype: The kicking game is fine. Kalani says so.

Reality: Every week I’m amazed at NFL kickers, who routinely make 80-90% of their field goal attempts. College football, however, is another story. BYU has had some good kickers in the past but the majority have been wildly inconsistent. Jake Oldroyd started his career with a game-winner against Arizona as a freshman, had some nice moments along the way but mostly failed to find the consistency expected. None of this year’s kickers (Will Ferrin, Matthias Dunn and Jordan Kapisi) have ever attempted so much as an extra point at the college level. Sitake will have decisions to make during the season. Kick or go on fourth down? He mostly chooses going for it and that’s not just because he’s a gambler. His confidence level in the kicking game will be proved out over the course of 2023. Punter Ryan Rehkow can be a real weapon if Sitake chooses to use him.

Hype: BYU’s independent schedule has prepared them better for the Big 12 than that of the AAC teams (Houston, Cincinnati, UCF).

Reality: You’d like to think so, wouldn’t you? The Cougars went 24-30 against Power Five competition during the independence era. They usually won at least two games against schools from power conferences each season and posted a 6-1 mark against those programs in 2021, including a 5-0 record against the Pac-12.

In the Big 12, BYU will play ten straight games against Power 5 competition, which will put a strain on all the program’s resources. It’ll be new to Houston, Cincinnati and UCF as well. Those team have been playing maybe one or two games against Power Five opponents. So you would think the Cougars would fare better than their brethren.

So what does it all mean?

On Saturday, BYU plays its first football game as a member of the Big 12. On September 23, the Cougars begin their first season of Big 12 play at Kansas. After months and months of speculation, BYU has a chance to prove they belong on the same field as all of the other P5 teams.

That’s all the Cougars have ever wanted.

“Being in the Big 12 is exciting because you have so much else to play for,” BYU junior linebacker Ben Bywater said. “Being independent was great but now you can play for a conference championship. You’re competing week to week watching who’s winning and who’s losing. It’s something we’re really excited for. There’s been a lot of anticipation and there’s been a lot of talk so I’m ready to just get out there and go do it, just go do the thing.”