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The Crystal Ball: How will BYU football’s season play out in 2022?

By Jared Lloyd - | Aug 25, 2022
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BYU players celebrate with fans after the 26-17 Cougar win over the Utes at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo on Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021. (BYU Photo)
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BYU players celebrate after recovering a fumble during the 27-17 Cougar win over Arizona State at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo on Saturday, Sept. 18, 2021. (Jaren Wilkey, BYU Photo)
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BYU players attempt to make a tackle during the 38-24 Cougar loss to Baylor in Waco, Texas, on Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021. (Jaren Wilkey, BYU Photo)
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BYU players run onto the field before the 34-17 Cougar win over Georgia Southern at Paulson Stadium in Statesboro, Georgia, on Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021. (Courtesy BYU Photo)
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BYU senior defensive back D'Angelo Mandell (5) and other players warm up before practice on the first day of 2022 spring camp in Provo on Monday, Feb. 28, 2022. (Jaren Wilkey, BYU Photo)

I frequently get asked about my opinion of what to expect from the BYU football team in 2022 and my response is always the same:

“If you can’t get excited about a Cougar team this year, when can you?”

BYU has a squad that is coming off a 10-win season (that easily could’ve been a 12-win season) with just about everyone back including the starting quarterback, almost the entire offensive line and 15 of the top 16 tacklers.

The schedule has a host of teams that provide statement opportunities but also have plenty of question marks. All of the games on the slate are ones that BYU should believe it has a legitimate shot of winning.

But if the Cougars don’t show up or make costly mistakes, there are plenty of teams who can beat BYU just as easily.

Cougar players and coaches don’t put a lot of stock in grandstanding in an attempt to influence public opinion. They want their performance on the field to do the talking.

“A huge part of our culture is believing in each other and blocking out a lot of the noise,” BYU wide receivers coach Fesi Sitake said last week. “Whether its transfers or NIL or preseason polls, those are noise. They don’t matter. It’s nice to be validated sometimes but that’s got to come after you produce, after the work. We believe in each other and know what we can do. We’ll let the results take care of themselves.”

I think that is the right mentality for a college football program to have but as an observer, I’m free to take some time to speculate.

So it’s time to peer into my crystal ball — cloudy though the images may be (last year I was 8-4 with my picks) — and predict what will happen in each of the 12 Cougar regular-season games in 2022:

SOUTH FLORIDA

Sept. 3, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa

2 p.m. MT, ESPNU

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Jeff Scott (3rd year)

2021: 2-10 (1-7 in the AAC)

Players to Watch: Antonio Grier (Sr. LB), Gerry Bohanon (Sr. QB), Dwayne Boyles (Sr. LB), Xavier Weaver (Jr. WR), Vincent Davis (Sr. S)

Outlook: The Bulls are hoping this is the season where they get back on the right track after plenty of recent frustrations. This is a squad with lots of returners, one that believes it could be the turnaround team of 2022.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: Forget the humidity or potential stormy weather in Tampa because the Cougars will simply out-physical USF. The strong, experienced line opens lots of holes and BYU controls field position.

If BYU takes a step backwards: A combination of athleticism and experience allow the Bulls to start fast, putting the Cougars in a hole. BYU fights back but can’t overcome costly mistakes.

What will actually happen: The Cougars traditionally do fine in season-openers and this will be no exception. BYU won’t have everything go its way but it will do enough to secure a comfortable victory.

Jared says: 28-13 BYU

BAYLOR

Sept. 10, LaVell Edwards Stadium

8:15 p.m. MT, ESPN

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Dave Aranda (3rd year)

2021: 12-2 (7-2 in the Big 12)

Players to Watch: Siaki Ika (Jr. DL), Connor Galvin (Sr. OL), Dillon Doyle (Jr. LB), Jacob Gall (Sr. C), Christian Morgan (Sr. DB)

Outlook: The question after having one of the best seasons in school history is always the same: What do you do for an encore? The Bears ended last year at No. 5 in the nation and won the Sugar Bowl but now has to reload after losing a number of talented players.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars prove they learn the lessons the Bears taught them in Waco in 2021, stepping up the physicality at the point of attack to slow Baylor’s offense.

If BYU takes a step backwards: Once again, former BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes leads his team to a lot of points and the Bears show they are still the better team.

What will actually happen: This game will be a battle and neither team will impose its will. Victory will come down to which team can avoid mistakes and this time it will be the Cougars who make the big plays late to get the upset.

Jared says: 24-20 BYU

OREGON

Sept. 17, Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.

1:30 p.m. MT, FOX

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Dan Lanning (1st year)

2021: 10-4 (7-2 in the Pac-12)

Players to Watch: Noah Sewell (So. LB), Justin Flowe (Fr. LB), TJ Bass (Sr. OL), Alex Forsyth (Sr. OL), Christian Gonzalez (So. DB)

Outlook: Would the real Oregon team please stand up? Is it the one who won arguably the biggest nonconference game for the Pac-12 in the last few years by beating Ohio State in Columbus? Or is it the one that lost to Stanford and got blown out in three of its last four games? That might be the question that defines the season for the Ducks in 2022.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars take advantage of getting Oregon early in the season as it is still figuring things out under first-year head coach Dan Lanning, confusing the Ducks and forcing mistakes on their way to a big road upset.

If BYU takes a step backwards: Oregon’s speed and talent are too much for the Cougars to match as the Ducks avenge some of BYU’s domination of the Pac-12 in 2021 by knocking off the visiting Cougars.

What will actually happen: Oregon struggled with teams who could push them around in the trenches and BYU has the type of offensive experience to do just that. Look for running back Chris Brooks to have a big game and keep the Cougars close, but the Ducks offense makes too many big plays.

Jared says: 41-35 Oregon

WYOMING

Sept. 24, LaVell Edwards Stadium

Time/TV TBA

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Craig Bohl (9th year)

2021: 7-6 (2-6 in the Mountain West)

Players to Watch: Easton Gibbs (So. LB), Titus Swen (Sr. RB), Cole Godbout (Sr. DT), DeShawn Woods (Fr. OT)

Outlook: The Cowboys have been a middle-of-the-pack team in the Mountain West but went through quite a bit of roster turnover. It takes a lot of effort to keep track of all the transfers coming and going but the hope in Laramie is that the team will be better overall.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The old days of Wyoming always giving the Cougars a fight prove to be a distant memory as BYU overwhelms the overmatched Cowboys early and never looks back.

If BYU takes a step backwards: The rivalry is renewed with another intense, bare-knuckle battle where both teams get hammered and the game is close until the end.

What will actually happen: The Cowboys won’t be at 100% a week after hosting the option attack of Air Force, while the Cougars will have their own injury issues after playing at Oregon. Still, BYU is deeper and that will make the difference on the field.

Jared says: 37-16 BYU

UTAH STATE

Sept. 29, LaVell Edwards Stadium

6 p.m. MT, ESPN

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Blake Anderson (2nd year)

2021: 11-3 (6-2 in the Mountain West)

Players to Watch: Logan Bonner (Sr. QB), Hunter Reynolds (Sr. S), Alfred Edwards (Sr. OL), AJ Vongphachanh (Sr. LB), Justin McGriff (Sr. WR)

Outlook: The Aggies achieved more than just about anyone thought possible last fall, but now have the challenge of trying to maintain their level of success. Things are looking up in Logan but they won’t surprise anyone in 2022.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Aggies gear up to try to stop the Cougar running game and Jaren Hall and the BYU passing attack has a field day, racing up and down the field with numerous big plays.

If BYU takes a step backwards: USU once again comes to Provo and elevates its performance behind a drive to upset their in-state foes one more time. BYU is listless and can’t recover when the Aggies throw the first haymaker.

What will actually happen: Utah State will be scrappy and determined, keeping just close enough to be dangerous. But when the game is on the line, the Cougars will be the ones to make the critical plays to get the win in a dogfight.

Jared says: 25-17 BYU

NOTRE DAME

Oct. 8, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

5:30 p.m. MT, NBC

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Marcus Freeman (first year)

2021: 11-2

Players to Watch: Isaiah Foskey (Jr. DE),  Tyler Buchner (So. QB), Michael Mayer (Jr. TE), Jarrett Patterson (Sr. OL), Brandon Joseph (Sr. DB)

Outlook: The Irish promoted from within to fill its head coaching position, meaning in theory there should be continuity with Marcus Freeman at the helm. The consensus is that this squad has plenty of talent but will be more tested in 2022 after not beating any opponent who ended up ranked last year.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars come in riding high and ready for a battle with Allegiant Stadium rocking. BYU keeps Notre Dame QB Tyler Buchner off-balance and forces costly turnovers.

If BYU takes a step backwards: Notre Dame’s defensive prowess is on full display as the Cougar offense sputters throughout the game. Junior defensive end Isaiah Foskey gives BYU’s offensive line nightmares and the Cougars can’t score enough points to stay in the game.

What will actually happen: Look for this to be a defensive struggle with neither side consistently moving the ball. Both teams will hit a few big plays but also have critical mistakes as the game comes down to the fourth quarter. That’s when Notre Dame will finally get the breakthrough to avoid the upset.

Jared says: 20-17 Notre Dame

ARKANSAS

Oct. 15, LaVell Edwards Stadium

Time/TV TBA

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Sam Pittman (3rd year)

2021: 9-4 (4-4 in the SEC)

Players to Watch: KJ Jefferson (Jr. QB), Bumper Pool (Sr. LB), Jalon Catalon (Jr. S), Jadon Haselwood (Jr. WR), Ricky Stromberg (Sr. OL)

Outlook: Although the Razorbacks weren’t quite good enough to join the SEC elite, they quietly had an impressive season. This is a squad with size, speed and a solid identity that could be a darkhorse candidate to make a big run.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars prove they can go toe-to-toe with a physical SEC opponent and not back down. BYU plays a strong strategic game and pounces on every Arkansas miscue.

If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougar defensive front seven can’t contain Razorback dual-threat quarterback KJ Jefferson and his decision-making gives Arkansas a decisive edge.

What will actually happen: If both teams exceed expectations, this could be a game with national buzz. More likely it will be a battle of two really good teams. BYU will care more and start strong, but Arkansas will make too many plays down the stretch.

Jared says: 36-25 Arkansas

LIBERTY

Oct. 22, Arthur L. Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Virginia

Time/TV TBA

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Hugh Freeze (4th year)

2021: 8-5

Players to Watch: Javon Scruggs (Sr. S), TreShaun Clark (Jr. DE), Caleb Snead (Sr. WR), Charlie Brewer (Sr. QB), Cam Reddy (Sr. OL)

Outlook: The Flames continue to be a steady, dangerous team who can be counted on to come up with some big wins. While Liberty lost some huge contributors, it mined the transfer portal and hopes the replacements will keep it rolling.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Cougar defense gives Flame quarterback Charlie Brewer nightmares of 2021 when he couldn’t get the Utah offense going in BYU’s big win. The Cougars stuff the run game and force a couple of big turnovers.

If BYU takes a step backwards: After a tough stretch against physical opponents, BYU simply has nothing left in the gas tank. The Cougars help Liberty with poor concentration in a disappointing performance.

What will actually happen: BYU will come out angry after missing opportunities in games that could have been wins earlier in the month, and the Flames won’t be able to keep up. The Cougars bludgeon their way to another physical win.

Jared says: 33-20 BYU

EAST CAROLINA

Oct. 28, LaVell Edwards Stadium

6 p.m. MT, ESPN2

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Mike Houston (3rd year)

2021: 7-5 (5-3 in the AAC)

Players to Watch: Keaton Mitchell (So. RB), Holton Ahlers (Sr. QB), CJ Johnson (Jr. WR), Shawn Dourseau (Jr. S), Jireh Wilson (Jr. LB)

Outlook: The Pirates proved to themselves that they can compete, fighting through close games throughout the 2021 season. With a large number of players returning, ECU should expect to take another step forward and start winning more of those games.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars take advantage of the long trip for the Pirates, wearing down East Carolina. As the game moves into the second half, BYU’s offense ends up being unstoppable as the Cougars pull away.

If BYU takes a step backwards: The talented Pirate backfield exploits BYU’s defensive front seven as East Carolina hangs onto the ball for much of the game, getting just enough points to put the Cougars in a tough spot.

What will actually happen: East Carolina will pull an upset or two but the brutal midseason stretch will be too much for the Pirates. Look for the BYU defense to create problems at the line of scrimmage as the Cougars get a comfortable victory.

Jared says: 43-19 BYU

BOISE STATE

Nov. 6, Albertsons Stadium, Boise

Time/TV TBA

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Andy Avalos (2nd year)

2021: 7-5 (5-3 in the Mountain West)

Players to Watch: John Ojukwu (Sr. OL), Scott Matlock (Sr. DL), JL Skinner (Sr. S), Hank Bachmeier (Sr. QB), Ezekiel Noa (Sr. LB)

Outlook: The Broncos were unable to truly get things rolling last year, finishing with their worst record since 1998. But BSU was on the cusp of being a lot better and the Broncos believe they can win more of the close games.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars avenge their disappointing loss in Provo in 2021 by blasting the Broncos on the “Smurf Turf” in Boise, manhandling Boise State on both sides of the ball.

If BYU takes a step backwards: The Broncos reassert themselves as foils to the Cougars with quarterback Hank Bachmeier making key passes and BYU failing to rally late.

What will actually happen: This will be another good game as both teams will have moments of success. The difference will be BYU’s defense, which will put the clamps down on BSU at key moments and allow the Cougars to get the win.

Jared says: 33-30 BYU

UTAH TECH

Nov. 19, LaVell Edwards Stadium

1:30 p.m. MT, BYUtv

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: Paul Peterson (4th year)

2021: 1-10

Players to Watch: Nathan Aceves (Sr. OL), Kobe Tracy (So. QB), Keith Davis (Jr. WR), Tyrell Grayson (So. DB), Malaki Malaki (Sr. LB)

Outlook: The football team representing Utah Tech certainly hopes that the name change from Dixie State will also improve the team’s fortune on the gridiron. The Trailblazers struggled to compete in 2021 but hope to take some big strides this fall.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars score quickly and often, then stuff the Trailblazer offense as the game is over by halftime.

If BYU takes a step backwards: The home team is lethargic and mistake-prone, providing some golden opportunities for Utah Tech to stay closer than it should.

What will actually happen: BYU won’t have any trouble taking care of business as the Trailblazers will take the beatdown and the check while the Cougars get to empty the bench.

Jared says: 57-7 BYU

STANFORD

Nov. 26, Stanford Stadium, Stanford, Calif.

Time/TV TBA

Opponent breakdown

Head coach: David Shaw (12th year)

2021: 3-9 (2-7 in the Pac-12)

Players to Watch: Tanner McKee (Sr. QB), Kyu Blu Kelly (Sr. WR), Benjamin Yurosek (Jr. TE), Levani Damuni (Sr. LB), Walter Rouse (Sr. OL)

Outlook: The Cardinal are coming off a head-scratching season that featured a win over Oregon and losses to just about everyone else. Stanford is hungry to get back to its winning ways but has plenty of question marks to answer.

Crystal Ball

If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars once again go on the road to face a Pac-12 opponent in its final game and proves it has the superior team. BYU beats Stanford at its own game, running the ball well and mixing it up with big plays down the field.

If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cardinal experience a resurgence and the Cougars can’t slow down Stanford senior quarterback Tanner McKee (a former BYU target) as he carves up the BYU secondary.

What will actually happen: Stanford will be better than it was in 2021 but will still be in the middle of the pack in what will once again be a mediocre Pac-12. BYU won’t be at 100% but will be good enough to hang on for a close win.

Jared says: 27-22 BYU

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