BYU sports experts Darnell Dickson and Jared Lloyd address five of the big questions facing Cougar athletics this week:

1. What was the biggest play or sequence of plays in BYU’s loss to East Carolina?

DICKSON: After the game I thought it was the two fourth-down failures in the fourth quarter, but re-examining the video I decided it was the 3-and-out with about two minutes to play and the score tied at 24. ECU didn’t score on either one of the failed fourth downs (missed a field goal on one and failed on fourth down itself on the other). On the 3-and-out sequence, the Cougars ran a flat pass to Masen Wake, a running play for Lopini Katoa and another flat pass to Wake that was dropped. Seems like some conservative play calling in the shadow of its own goal posts for BYU and didn’t put the ball into the hands of its best playmaker (Puka Nacua). Easy to second-guess, I know. But if the Cougars get a first down or two on that drive, I think they win the game either in the final seconds or in overtime.

LLOYD: What is so often overlooked when talking about a failed fourth-down play is the plays that put the team in that position in the first place. Late in the third quarter with the game tied, BYU had put together a drive that had covered 60 yards in 10 plays. Of those 10 plays, seven had been run plays that had gained 43 yards. So what did the Cougars do? Keep running the ball on first and second down — for a net gain of zero yards (one yard gained, one yard lost). It became third-and-10 and although the 8-yard pass from QB Jaren Hall to WR Keanu Hill put BYU in position to go for it, the failures on the first two downs were the ones that were most costly. On the next drive, BYU had a first down run nullified by a holding penalty, then nearly got the yardage necessary on a pass to Brayden Cosper and came up short on the QB sneak, but it was the previous plays that put the Cougars in the position to go for it. Those were the plays that shaped the game and resulted in the defeat.

2. BYU has used 42 different starters on offense and defense this season. Is that a legit excuse for the Cougars’ 4-5 record?

LLOYD: I think there needs to be differentiation between starters who were replaced due to injuries and those where the team was either attempting to match opposing personnel or simply switching between two athletes with similar skill sets. The BYU defense has played so many players for the last few years that the term “starter” has been virtually meaningless, but having players like Malik Moore, Chaz Ah You, Max Tooley, Payton Wilgar and Lorenzo Fauatea certainly has impacted what the Cougars have been able to do on that side of the ball. It’s also tough to ignore what the losses of Christopher Brooks, Puka Nacua, Gunner Romney and Lopini Katoa (plus Dallin Holker) have meant to the BYU offense. Still, the Cougars had legitimate chances to win the games against Notre Dame and East Carolina, so this could easily be a team that is 6-3 (good, although not great). I think execution has been the biggest factor in the current record, but the injuries have impacted that.

DICKSON: At first glance, I would say ‘yes.” Injuries have played a pretty big part on both sides of the ball for BYU. On defense, the coaches chose to play a ton of guys from the very start of the season so maybe that number is skewed. But I think there is a larger problem that isn’t being solved by more staff, including a couple of sports scientists: Why do BYU players seem to get hurt so much? Is it more than other teams? It certainly seems to be the case.

3. What positives can you take out of the loss to East Carolina?

DICKSON: BYU made a real commitment to the running game against the Pirates and it was successful (244 yards). Katoa ran really well but Miles Davis wasn’t very effective in his carries. This allowed the offense to hold the ball and kept the defense from facing 70 or 80 plays. The defense did get four stops (I said before the game they needed five to win the game) with two punts, a fourth-down stop and a missed field goal by ECU. That’s much better than we saw in the previous three games. The coaches need to build on those successes and help both sides of the ball find some confidence.

LLOYD: The biggest positive is that the Cougars had chances to win. We can use generic terms like “momentum” and “confidence” to attempt to describe what athletes have to deal with when things aren’t going well but the reality is that there is a lot more that goes into it. Things certainly snowballed out of control for BYU in the losses to Arkansas and Liberty but against the Pirates the Cougars made some key plays that put them in position to be the better team. No, BYU didn’t make enough of them on either side of the ball and that’s why East Carolina won, but the Cougars were right there. It’s a much shorter step to getting on the right side of the scoreboard from a close loss than it is from getting blasted.

4. BYU hasn’t had much success playing on the Smurf Turf at Boise State. Do the Cougars have any chance at winning there on Saturday?

LLOYD: BYU gets the benefit of being the underdogs with virtually no expectations this week, which can make a big difference for a team that hasn’t been able to meet its own high standards during the season. This is a good Broncos team, but Boise State’s wins over New Mexico, Tennessee-Martin, San Diego State, Fresno State, Air Force and Colorado State don’t exactly overwhelm me. Those teams are a combined 17-25 against FBS opponents with no one better than 5-3, so the Broncos don’t really have any hallmark victories. One thing that is intriguing is that Boise State and BYU are very familiar with each other, so that familiarity makes it harder to really surprise each other. The Cougars blasted the Broncos in their last trip to Boise (albeit in the oddball COVID-19 year), so I don’t expect BYU to be concerned about the atmosphere. The concerns about the ability to stop the run are far more pressing but if the Cougars can do better in that area, they will certainly have a shot at getting the victory.

DICKSON: Based on previous performance, both in past years and games this year, chances aren’t good. Boise State (6-2) has an athletic young quarterback and a strong running game. The Broncos defense is ranked No. 2 in the country in total yards allowed (232). It would be a huge challenge for the BYU team that opened the season 4-1, let alone a team that hasn’t won a game since Sept. 29. I don’t think the Cougars will be able to rush for 244 yards again, so there will be a lot more pressure on quarterback Jaren Hall to carry the team on his ailing shoulders. Five straight losses for the first time since 2017 (before that was something like 1970) would be a tough pill for BYU and its proud program to swallow.

5. Which Quad 1 preseason game (at San Diego State, vs. USC or Tennessee at the Battle 4 Atlantis, vs. Creighton in Las Vegas) is the BYU men’s basketball team most likely to win?

DICKSON: The best chance for a victory probably would come in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Crazy things happen at those holiday tournaments. The Aztecs in Montezuma Mesa will be really tough and Creighton hammered the Cougars last year at a neutral site. There is still so much we don’t know about Mark Pope’s team this year, it’s difficult for me to know what to expect against really good teams. Ask me again in a few weeks.

LLOYD: As Darnell pointed out, this BYU squad still has a lot of questions to answer and so it is certainly difficult to gauge whether it will be good enough to beat any of the better teams it has on the schedule. I currently think the Cougars will likely fall in all of those games until they show me they are cohesive enough and execute well enough to overcome their deficiencies. Still, since I’m supposed to pick one, I’m going to say BYU has the best chance to defeat Creighton in Las Vegas. I know the Blue Jays are very good and crushed the Cougars last year, but by that point BYU will have had a month of basketball under its belt. The Cougars will also have a very pro-BYU crowd in Vegas and that might be the edge the underdogs need to pull off a big upset.

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