The Cougars improved in the run game but the pass game took a step backwards last week. Now they face one of the most difficult tests of the season as statistically Boise State has the best pass defense and the second-best overall defense in the nation. Points are not going to be easy to come by for BYU.

Edge: Boise State

BYU defense vs. Boise State offense

The Cougars face an interesting dilemma: Do they commit more manpower to stopping the run (which is a strength for the Broncos) and risk giving up big pass plays or do they focus on better base defense and hope it is enough? Boise State’s offense hasn’t been phenomenal, so look for BYU to get more stops than it has in recent weeks.

Edge: Even

Coaching

BYU head coach Kalani Sitake was able to get his team to end Boise State’s home win streak in 2020 but faces a much bigger test this year. The Cougars and Broncos are familiar with each other, which benefits both sides. Boise State head coach Andy Avalos is in his second year and got his team going the right direction after a rocky start.

Edge: Boise State

Intangibles

Boise State is at home and playing with confidence, while BYU is coming in on a downward slide. The Cougars no longer have expectations of being great but instead have the pressure to just find a way to win. BYU certainly wants to avenge last year’s home loss but will have to elevate their game significantly to have a shot of doing that.

Edge: Boise State

Key Matchup: The BYU running backs vs. the Boise State linebackers

The Cougars are going up against a Bronco defense that is excellent at forcing negative plays (50 tackles for a loss this year). That puts extra pressure on BYU’s running backs to hit holes hard and get upfield when running as well as being prepared and physical when called upon to block. Both elements will be key for the Cougars to be able to move the ball which is easier said than done.

Edge: Even

Prediction

This will be a better week for the BYU defense as it will do better at limiting the big gains on the ground. But it won’t be able to get enough three-and-outs in a game where field position will be of vital importance to both teams. Puka Nacua will make a few big plays and the Cougars will stay close. In the end, however, the Bronco defense will shut down BYU in the fourth quarter and Boise State will hang on to win just like it did in 2021.

Boise State 23, BYU 14