The Crystal Ball: How will BYU football’s season play out in 2024?
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- BYU head coach Kalani Sitake and the Cougar players sing the fight song with the fans after the game against Arkansas at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on Saturday, Sept. 17, 2023.
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- BYU players run onto the field before the Big 12 game against Cincinnati at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo on Friday, Sept. 30, 2023.
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- BYU and Kansas players line up for a play during the Big 12 game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kansas, on Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023.
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- BYU junior defensive lineman Tyler Batty gets a sack during the Big 12 game against Oklahoma State at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023.
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- BYU sophomore defensive lineman Blake Mangelson knocks down a pass during the New Mexico Bowl game against SMU at University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M., on Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022.
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- BYU defenders tackle a Utah ball carrier during the 26-17 Cougar win over the Utes at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo on Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021. (Marci Harris, Herald correspondent)
In college football terms, this is what life under the radar looks like.
BYU is basically looked at as an afterthought heading into the 2024 season, mostly due to its 5-7 finish in 2023.
And most Cougar players and coaches are outwardly OK with that.
But you better believe they see themselves as being a lot better than the mediocre preseason rankings they’ve been given.
After all, what does anyone really know before the season?
Some use the eye test, just ranking teams based on what they see. Others use complicated computer metrics, attempting to take into account how much of an impact transfers and recruits ill have while basically ignoring things like team chemistry and execution.
And then they will just shrug and say they couldn’t have seen the impact of injuries or other issues as their highly-ranked teams lose games to lower-ranked foes.
So trying to forecast a college football season is an exercise in luck as much as expertise.
But we speculate anyway because it is fun to make our best guesses, then sit back and see how close we are to being right.
So it’s time once again to peer into my crystal ball — hazy though the images may be (last year I was 7-5 with my picks) — and predict what will happen in each of the 12 Cougar regular-season games in 2024:
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Aug. 31, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
6 p.m. MT, ESPN+
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Nick Hill (9th year)
2023: 8-5 overall
Players to Watch: Vinson Davis III (Jr. WR), Aidan Quinn (Sr. TE), Derek Harden Jr. (Jr. OL), Ubayd Steed (Sr. DB), Iverson Brown (Sr. DB), Colin Bohanek (Sr. LB)
Outlook: The Salukis enjoyed a solid season in 2023 and are bring back some key pieces, which is why they are the No. 9-ranked team in the FCS according to HERO Sports. Southern Illinois has proven it isn’t going to be intimidated by FBS teams, as evidenced by last year’s win at Northern Illinois.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars show that their commitment to cohesion pays dividends immediately as BYU appears to be on a different level in the opener. Everything seems to work as BYU is just too much for the Salukis.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougars find themselves in another dogfight, plagued by mistakes and turnovers. The home crowd at LaVell Edwards Stadium is frequently quiet as BYU slugs out a close win.
What will actually happen: As always, expect some overeagerness and miscues in the opener for both teams. The Cougars, however, will start to impose their will on the game in the second quarter, grinding out some long drives on the ground. The BYU defense is solid, only giving up a late touchdown.
Jared says: 36-13 BYU
SMU
Sept. 6, Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas
5 p.m. MT, ESPN2
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (3rd year)
2023: 11-3 overall
Players to Watch: Preston Stone (Jr. QB), Justin Osborne (Sr. OL), RJ Maryland (Jr. TE), Kobe Wilson (Sr. LB), Ahmad Walker (Sr. LB), Elijah Roberts (Sr. DL).
Outlook: It’s a new era for the defending American Athletic Conference champs, who jumped to the ACC for the 2024 season. The Mustangs are coming off an excellent season and have a lot of returning pieces, but struggled against power competition last season.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars stun everyone with a big offensive performance, utilizing the passing game to keep the Mustang defense on its heels. BYU has multiple receivers finish with more than 100 yards as the visitors get a big early-season road win.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougar offensive line simply isn’t up to the challenge, giving up too many negative plays to the solid SMU defensive front seven. The Mustang offense takes advantage of some short fields to seize control.
What will actually happen: This will be a good battle between teams that want to set the tone heading to league play. SMU has some playmakers and will make some big plays, but BYU won’t back down. Look for this one to come down to the fourth quarter, but the Dallas heat and humidity will wear down the Cougars at the end.
Jared says: 27-23 SMU
WYOMING
Sept. 14, War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, Wyo.
7 p.m. MT, CBSSN
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Jay Sawvel (1st year)
2023: 9-4 overall
Players to Watch: Wyatt Ekeler (Sr. DB), Jordan Bertagnole (Sr. DL), Isaac White (Jr. DB), Harrison Waylee (Sr. RB), Shae Suiaunoa (Sr. LB).
Outlook: The Cowboys may have a new head coach but don’t expect their identity to change much. They’ve hung their hat on being a tough, physical team that likes to run the ball and play great defense, things Wyoming expects to continue doing in 2024.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars showcase how improved they are at stopping the run, keeping the Cowboys to around 100 yards on the ground. That forces a number of punts and BYU’s offense breaks through enough to come out on top.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougars wilt as they get gashed for big runs again, allowing the boisterous Wyoming crowd to get into the game. BYU coughs the ball up a couple of times and the Cowboys notch another big home win over a Power 4 opponent.
What will actually happen: This game will come down to what happens in the trenches, so look to see which side imposes their will. BYU will be improved, but Wyoming will be up for this one and fight hard. In the end, the Cougars will have just enough to hold on.
Jared says: 20-17 BYU
KANSAS STATE
Sept. 21, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
TBA
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Chris Klieman (6th year)
2023: 9-4 overall
Players to Watch: DJ Giddens (Jr. RB), Austin Moore (Sr. LB), Jacob Parrish (Jr. DB), Easton Kilty (Sr. OL), Uso Seumalo (Sr. DL).
Outlook: This is a Kansas State team that many believe has the pieces to win the Big 12 and get a bye in the College Football Playoff. It has won at least eight games in three straight years and has been very good at home. The expectations are high in Manhattan, Kansas, but that means it will have a target all year.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars usually get fired up for big games at LaVell Edwards Stadium, somewhere Kansas State hasn’t played since 1977. This turns into a nightmare for the visiting Wildcats as the raucous BYU crowd helps keep the KSU offense out-of-sync as the Cougars get the upset.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Wildcats come in on a role after defeating Arizona and the Cougars fail to slow them down. BYU gets a few points but Kansas State controls the game on both sides of the ball.
What will actually happen: This may be the most intriguing early-season matchup, since both teams should still be dreaming big at this point. Kansas State will take the lead in the second half, but BYU will be in position to win late. A Wildcat defensive stop will be the difference as KSU escapes with the win.
Jared says: 30-24 Kansas State
BAYLOR
Sept. 28, McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
TBA
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Dave Aranda (5th year)
2023: 3-9 overall
Players to Watch: Campbell Barrington (Sr. OL), Matt Jones (Sr. LB), Monaray Baldwin (Sr. WR), Devyn Bobby (Jr. DB), Cooper Lanz (Jr. DL), Dominic Richardson (Sr. RB).
Outlook: Things did not go according to plan for the Bears in the last couple of years as Baylor struggled mightily to get on track. Head coach Dave Aranda needs to show signs of improvement, which means there will be a sense of urgency in Waco this season.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars make former Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon right at home, putting together excellent execution to put up a bunch of points — something Bohanon did for the Bears during the Sugar Bowl run in 2021.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougars come in beat up and lacking momentum, which sets up perfectly for a Baylor squad needing a big win. Former BYU offensive lineman Campbell Barrington is part of a strong showing up front as the Bears run wild.
What will actually happen: Both teams will come in with question marks and it won’t be a pretty game. The lead will go back and forth a couple of times but BYU will get some big plays on special teams that will make the difference.
Jared says: 22-16 BYU
ARIZONA
Oct. 12, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
TBA
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Brett Brennan (1st year)
2023: 10-3 overall
Players to Watch: Tetairoa McMillan (Jr. WR), Noah Fifita (So. QB), Tacario Davis (Jr. DB), Jacob Manu (Jr. LB), Treydan Stukes (Sr. DB).
Outlook: It’s been a long time since the Wildcats came into a season with buzz like they have in 2024, thanks to an excellent season last year. But now Arizona has a new head coach and a new conference, as well as the challenge of not being able to sneak up on anyone.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars remind the Wildcats what it was like the last time the two schools were in the same conference in the 1970s, throwing the ball around and making big plays. BYU continues the recent trend, getting its seventh win in the last nine games against Arizona.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougars struggle to contain both Noah Fifita and Tetairo McMillan, both of whom have huge games. BYU simply can’t score enough to keep up as the Wildcat offense is almost unstoppable.
What will actually happen: This won’t be the Arizona team many expect it to be as injuries will take a toll and it will be fighting to find its identity. BYU will take advantage of being at home and get the lead, then hold off a late charge to get the win.
Jared says: 34-24 BYU
OKLAHOMA STATE
Oct. 18, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
8:15 p.m. MT, ESPN
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Mike Gundy (20th year)
2023: 10-4 overall
Players to Watch: Ollie Gordon II (Jr. RB), Nick Martin (Jr. LB), Brennan Presley (Sr. WR), Justin Wright (Sr. LB), Collin Oliver (Sr. LB), Dalton Cooper (Sr. OL).
Outlook: It’s fascinating to see the No. 2 team in the Big 12 from 2023 return as many starters as it does and still not be picked to win. That’s likely because the Cowboys were head-scratchingly confusing at times last fall, having moments when they really struggled. But if they clean some things up, this team could easily win the league.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars roar out of the gate, intent on avenging last year’s disappointing overtime loss. BYU wins the time of possession battle and keeps OSU star RB Ollie Gordon II under 100 yards for the game.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougars aren’t able to surprise Oklahoma State like they did in 2023, struggling to get much offense. The Cowboy defense forces a couple of costly turnovers that allow the visitors to pull away.
What will actually happen: Oklahoma State comes in off a bye and that will help the Cowboys survive an early Cougar push. BYU will again have a lead disappear but will keep the game close down the stretch. A Will Ferrin field goal in the final minute turns out to be the difference.
Jared says: 27-24 BYU
UCF
Oct. 26, FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando
TBA
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Gus Malzahn (4th year)
2023: 6-7 overall
Players to Watch: N
Outlook: The Knights are a trendy pick to surge up the ranks of the Big 12, thanks in large part to their Florida location. This is a team that has a lot of talent but has to prove it can be ready for the grind of power conference football.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars overcome UCF’s athleticism with excellent execution, coming up with a number of big third-down plays on both sides of the ball. BYU grabs the lead and never looks back.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougars appear worn down and things get away from them early. The depth struggles to keep up after injuries to starters decimate BYU and the Knights cruise to victory.
What will actually happen: This is a dangerous place to play and the Cougars will face a UCF team hungry for a win. It will be a classic Big 12 battle, coming down to the final minutes. The home team will get a boost from the crowd on a late drive to score the game-winning points.
Jared says: 40-37 UCF
UTAH
Nov. 9, Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City
TBA
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Kyle Whittingham (20th year)
2023: 8-5 overall
Players to Watch: Junior Tafuna (Sr. DL), Cameron Rising (Sr. QB), Brant Kuithe (Sr. TE), Zemaiah Vaughn (Sr. DB), Micah Bernard (Sr. RB), Michael Mokofisi (Jr. OL).
Outlook: This is supposed to be Utah’s year. It’s the one Kyle Whittingham put off retirement for. Top players who were hurt last year are back, so the expectations are high. The one glaring problem to all the hype, of course, is that now the Utes are in a new, more balanced league with a ton more travel. It won’t be easy.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars pounce on a disheartened Ute squad riddled with problems, forcing turnovers and scoring points in bunches. The stands at Rice-Eccles Stadium are mostly filled with BYU supporters by the end of the game.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougars aren’t able to contain Ute running back Micah Bernard, who has an amazing day. His running keeps the clock in Utah’s favor and the Utes secure the win.
What will actually happen: Games between these two rivals almost always come down to the last play– and now they play in a conference known for one-score games. This one will live up to the billing, turning into a battle where neither side leads by more than a TD. Utah will lead late but BYU will have the ball. A tipped-ball interception will be the difference as Utah holds on.
Jared says: 35-30 Utah
KANSAS
Nov. 16, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
TBA
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Lance Leipold (4th year)
2023: 9-4 overall
Players to Watch: Jalon Daniels (Jr. QB), Cobee Bryant (Sr. DB), Devin Neal (Sr. RB), Lawrence Arnold (Sr. WR), Jeremy Robinson (Sr. DL).
Outlook: Can Kansas really be consistently good at football and contend for a conference title? That’s the question in Lawrence these days as the Jayhawks have quietly put together some good seasons under Lance Leipold. 2024 could be the big payoff year.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars continue their avenging tour, jumping out strong to start and refusing to let Kansas get comfortable. LaVell Edwards Stadium is rocking as BYU chalks up another big home win.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougars move the ball but are forced to keep settling for field goals, which isn’t enough against Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawk offense.
What will actually happen: Both teams will be missing key players late in the season, so guys will be needed to step up and make big plays. BYU will get a big game from a running back like Sione Moa, one who hasn’t had a lot of playing time, but will be key in maintaining possession and keeping Kansas at bay.
Jared says: 24-17 BYU
ARIZONA STATE
Nov. 23, Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Ariz.
TBA
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (2nd year)
2023: 3-9 overall
Players to Watch: Cam Skattebo (Sr. RB), Leif Fautanu (Sr. OL), Shamari Simmons (Sr. DB), Troy Omeire (Sr. WR), Prince Dorbah (Sr. DL).
Outlook: The Sun Devils face a lot of question marks coming into 2024, having been forced to try to fill gaps through the transfer portal after struggling through a rough season. There is hope that things are turning around but this program has a lot to prove.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The Cougars come in rolling while the Sun Devils are mired in another losing season, struggling to get anything going. BYU keeps ASU down, getting a defensive touchdown to help the Cougars to a big win.
If BYU takes a step backwards: The Cougars face a resurgent Arizona State team that got a big upset in the previous weeks. BYU falls behind quickly and can’t rally on the road.
What will actually happen: The Cougars will be in a better position than the Sun Devils and make the most of their opportunities. BYU will go in front and although ASU will make some good plays, the Cougars will be too much.
Jared says: 31-14 BYU
HOUSTON
Nov. 30, LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
TBA
Opponent breakdown
Head coach: Willie Fritz (1st year)
2023: 4-8 overall
Players to Watch: AJ Haulcy (Jr. DB), Jamal Morris (Sr. LB), Donovan Smith (Sr. QB), Hershey McLaurin (Sr. DB), Tank Jenkins (Sr. OL).
Outlook: Just how will Houston do in Year 2 in the Big 12? It’s a question that is also being asked in Orlando, Cincinnati and Provo, but the red-uniformed Cougars had an eclectic season last year. If things get cleaned up under new head coach Willie Fritz, they could be dangerous.
Crystal Ball
If BYU is an elite team: The home Cougars wrap up a successful 2024 regular season with one final showcase, finishing with a balanced effort of running and passing against Houston. The defense forces a couple of turnovers as well in the solid home win.
If BYU takes a step backwards: BYU is already faced with another losing season and looks listless. Houston comes in and takes control from the start, going in front and sending the Cougars into the offseason with another disappointing defeat.
What will actually happen: Houston won’t just passively roll over and let BYU win, regardless of what happened in the season. The visitors will take advantage of an early break to take a lead, but the home team won’t let it stay that way. The blue-clad Cougars will put the game away in the fourth quarter.
Jared says: 32-19 BYU
