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BYU head coach Kalani Sitake celebrates after the Big 12 game against Oklahoma State at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo on Friday, Oct. 18, 2024.

Courtesy BYU Photo

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BYU defenders make a tackle during the Big 12 game against Oklahoma State at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo on Friday, Oct. 18, 2024.

Courtesy BYU Photo

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BYU men's basketball coach Kevin Young (center) instructs his team during practice in the Marriott Center Annex on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2024.

Aaron Cornia, BYU Photo

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Daily Herald sports writers Darnell Dickson and Jared Lloyd give their opinions on the hot BYU sports topics this week:

1. A hypothetical that’s going around involves BYU and Iowa State possibly playing in the Big 12 Championship Game either undefeated or with one loss. Does a one or two-loss Cougar or Cyclone team still get into the college football playoffs?

DICKSON: Watching how BYU and Iowa State — the only undefeated teams in the Big 12 — are ranked every week has been interesting. Other teams with losses (and not good losses) are ranked higher based mainly on where those teams were ranked to start the season.

We all know that a lot of different ratings are used to determine the college football playoffs and the AP poll isn’t really that critical, but it does reveal the perception of voters around the country. The SEC and Big Ten have a lot of influence over not only the polls but the committee that will pick the 12 teams. Those two leagues have already been lobbying for more automatic playoff berths for their teams.

The Big 12 is such a competitive league that the chances of a team going undefeated is pretty slim, I have to say. Say BYU and Iowa State both have one loss each and they play each other in the Big 12 Championship Game. Would the loser be out of the playoffs? Most national pundits say yes.

LLOYD: There are an enormous amount of factors that would play into the what would happen in that situation. Who did BYU and Iowa State beat? Who did they lose to? When did they lose? Did other conferences have more upsets or did the top teams win most of their games as well?

The same reason that the Big 12 is so much fun to watch — the parity — makes it harder to overcome losses. BYU has zero regular-season games left against opponents who are currently ranked. Iowa State has just one against Kansas State. No other league teams are in the Top 25, although maybe teams with two losses like Texas Tech, Colorado, Cincinnati or Arizona State could get there in November.

Given how college football has gone this season, I see the odds of both of the Big 12 championship teams getting into the playoff are still pretty good. But that is contingent on it being two of the top seven teams and none having more than two losses overall.

If BYU and ISU are undefeated going to the conference championship, I think both are certainly safely in regardless of who wins. Every loss on top of that makes it dicier, just as it does for other conferences.

2. What’s your biggest concern for BYU heading into this week’s road trip to UCF?

LLOYD: My biggest question is can BYU get enough offensive consistency?

This is a Knight team that has some tremendous athletes and will put some points on the board, particularly being at home. I think BYU’s defense will be better than it was against Oklahoma State, but I’ll be surprised if both teams don’t put up at least 20 points.

That means Cougar junior quarterback Jake Retzlaff and Company have to take advantage of their opportunities and get plenty of points. If BYU has stretches where it struggles to get first downs or coughs up the ball, that’s going to give UCF a big boost.

I don’t think this Knight defense is elite, but it’s good enough to cause the Cougars problems. BYU needs to ensure the time of possession isn’t lopsided and that it is clicking if the game turns into another shootout.

DICKSON: I know the UCF running game (No. 3 in the country at 289.8 yards per game) is getting a lot of attention this week but my biggest concern is BYU’s poor third down conversion defense in the past two games. Arizona was 11 of 19 (58%) and Oklahoma State 9 of 13 (69%) against the Cougars. That’s way too efficient against what’s supposed to be the strength of this BYU team.

Third downs relate strongly to the Golden Knights ability to gain good yardage on first and second down. Getting UCF into third-and-long is going to be really important because I don’t think the Golden Knights quarterbacks are going to be very good at converting those third-and-long situations.

The Cougars forced just one punt the entire game against Oklahoma State. It will take a very disciplined effort by the BYU defense to get off the field more often on Saturday.

3. BYU makes a lot of substitutions on defense, with as many as 25 players getting reps in the Oklahoma State game. Too many or just enough?

DICKSON: I’m only a dumb sports writer, but it seems that the timing of some of those substitutions can be a problem. In the red zone, you want your best defenders in the game, your most experienced players because discipline is really important in the shadow of your own goal post. Yet I continually see freshmen and backups on the field in those situations.

Hey, I think developing depth is critical for BYU’s success in the Big 12 and the coaches say they trust their guys, all of them. But I noticed in the second half against Oklahoma State, the Cougars tightened up their substitution patterns. The Cowboys only scored twice in the second half (including that ridiculous 17-play drive) after putting up three touchdowns in the first. I’m just sayin’ …

LLOYD: This isn’t nearly as straightforward a question as it might appear on the surface, in my opinion.

On the one hand, if Player A is slightly better overall but playing at 75% of his ability and Player B isn’t quite as good but is at 95%, I can see the logic of bringing in Player B. But that doesn’t necessarily take into account things like experience, rhythm and feel for the game.

I suspect that with all their analysts and tools BYU has some pretty good analytics regarding substitution patterns and what to expect, but I also think such numbers can be misleading. As I watch college football, I see most defenses doing many of the same things these days so it’s not like the Cougars are being unique in their approach.

My bottom line is what works. For much of the season, playing a lot of guys has been effective overall for the BYU defense. It wasn’t that way really against Oklahoma State, so it’s time for the Cougars to re-evaluate and see if adjustments to the substitution patterns need to be made going forward.

4. How many Big 12 men’s basketball teams do you think make the NCAA Tournament this season?

LLOYD: Of the eight Big 12 teams that made the NCAA tournament in 2024, only one (Texas) left. Of the four new arrivals, two (Arizona and Colorado) made it to the Big Dance. Since it would make logical sense to suggest the league will add one more spot to its record from last winter, I’m going to say nine Big 12 teams get in.

But I don’t think they will be all the same teams.

Many will continue to have success and it will be somewhat shocking if Kansas, Houston, Iowa State, Baylor and Arizona aren’t in the field of 68. BYU, TCU, Texas Tech and Colorado might be in the mix as well, but don’t be surprised if other teams who didn’t get in last March are in the mix this season. That’s what having the deepest league in the country means.

DICKSON: Eight teams from that league made the NCAA Tourney last year and I would expect the same in 2024-25. It’s funny to me that we are experiencing unprecedented preseason hype for the BYU men’s basketball team yet the Cougars are only picked to finish ninth. Last year, BYU was tied for fifth and I think they have the potential to do that or better this season.

I can’t help but imagine what kind of marks this team could put up playing the WCC. Those regular season meetings with Gonzaga and St. Mary’s would be epic and whoever the Cougars played in the WCC Tournament, it would be a cool night in Vegas. Oh, well. Got to move forward in the toughest basketball conference in the country.

5. College basketball coaches often brag about how deep their roster is but by the time league play rolls around, the rotation is only seven or eight players. With his NBA background, do you think BYU coach Kevin Young will go deeper?

DICKSON: I always got a laugh out of previous BYU coaches who would tell us they felt like they had more depth then ever before and still end up playing seven guys in league play.

With college basketball being 40 minutes (to the NBA’s 48) I expect Young to experiment during the preseason and play 10-12 guys nearly every game.  When he gets to Big 12 play, it will shorten up and I’m fascinated with what his rotation might look like at that time.

Also, who gets to finish the game? I think we’ll be surprised with how often that might change this season depending on matchups.

LLOYD: It’s the preseason, so right now every player on the Cougar roster is a potential All-American, right? It’s all hype and no reality yet.

I do think Young will start with some more NBA-like substitution tendencies, putting certain guys together in certain situations and see how it works. As he sees what works and what doesn’t that will evolve as the season progresses.

Just because traditionally most teams don’t go 10 or 11 deep on a regular basis doesn’t mean it can’t work in the right circumstances. In theory, that could result in less impact from injuries or foul trouble. It comes down to what Young and his staff decide will work best for this particular Cougar squad.