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BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker reacts to a big defensive play against East Carolina in a college football game on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025..

Courtesy BYU Photo

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Darnell Dickson, Daily Herald

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“Is this the year?”

It’s a question that’s being asked all around the country as college football programs move from fall camp to game prep, and in Provo, it’s the hottest topic around.

Reaching the ultimate goal — a national championship — eludes most of the 128 teams in the Football Championship Subdivision, formerly known as “Division I” to the old timers. Less than a quarter of those 128 teams have a realistic chance at sniffing one of the 12 College Football Playoff spots and maybe seven or eight teams are actually contenders for the national title.

It’s pretty depressing math, isn’t it?

For some teams, the odds are NEVER in their favor.

Despite the unfavorable odds, those 128 teams are still all going to take the field soon.

So what are their dreams?

If you’re Chicago State (competing for the first time as an FCS independent) or West Florida (reclassifying from Division II), you just hope play a couple of buy games to feed to athletic budget and survive. If you’re a team like Alabama or Texas, you face the highest expectations imaginable where anything short of a title is a disappointment.

And what of BYU?

The Cougars spent many years just outside of the national spotlight, where a good year was double-digit wins and a fun bowl game. The aspiration was to reach a New Year’s Day bowl, which BYU did once in 1997 with the Cotton Bowl.

Through the years in the Western Athletic Conference, the Mountain West Conference and independence, the Cougars had their moments.  BYU started 6-0 in 2008 and 4-0 in 2014, which got fans excited for an undefeated season and a possible big bowl game. But that never happened like it did for rival Utah (twice) and Boise State.

When BYU joined the Big 12, the access point seemed to improve. But as the Cougars have discovered, the road is still uphill when you don’t win every game.

BYU has gone 23-4 the past two seasons without a CFP berth. Close, but enough negative data points for the CFP committee to push the Cougars out. If the expansion to 16 or 24 takes place in the near future, their chances obviously improve.

In 2026, most pundits have Texas Tech as the Big 12 favorite with BYU right behind them. The two teams don’t play during the regular season in 2026.

The goal should be to win them all. If the Cougars manage that, there’s nothing to keep them out of the CFP. Short of winning every game, a victory on Oct. 17 against Notre Dame at LaVell Edwards Stadium would go a long way even if there was another loss or two on the schedule.

Safe to say that the meeting with the Irish is the biggest game in Provo since playing top-ranked Miami back in 1990.

What kind of season will satisfy BYU fans? After all, the step up to the Big 12 also increased the investment of the Cougar fan base. Tickets cost more every year because someone has to foot the bill.

BYU has a returning starting quarterback (Bear Bachmeier), the returning Big 12 offensive player of the year (LJ Martin) and one of the top linebacking groups in the country. The schedule has its landmines, including and early (Sept. 12) league game against Arizona and difficult road trips at TCU and Utah.

But this much is clear: If the Cougars do anything short of making the CFP, the 2026 season will be a disappointment.

That should make the next few months pretty interesting.