Beginning at 10 a.m. at the Fourth District Courthouse in Provo, the prosecutor and defense will make final arguments on whether there is sufficient probable cause to try Robinson in the shooting and killing of Charlie Kirk before Graf makes his ruling.

The looming decision comes nearly a year after Kirk was shot and killed on Sept. 10, 2025, in front of thousands of students at a Turning Point USA event at Utah Valley University in Orem. Robinson is charged with aggravated murder, a first-degree felony, and the state is pursuing the death penalty in the case.

At a five-day preliminary hearing in July, the Utah County Attorney’s Office presented its evidence to the judge linking Robinson to the crime. Prosecutors presented video evidence that allegedly showed Robinson at the time of the shooting, including an individual running across the roof of the Losee Center at UVU and dropping into a crawl position.

Prosecutors also presented videos allegedly tracking Robinson’s movements around campus and forensic and physical evidence against Robinson. Witnesses testified to Robinson turning himself in to the Washington County Sheriff’s office. A video was shown of his former roommate, Lance Twiggs, telling law enforcement Robinson confessed to the murder and said he “wishes he hadn’t done it.”

The defense spent much of the week fighting against the admission of evidence, citing hearsay, public access and Robinson’s right to a fair trial. They also brought two witnesses to the stand from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and questioned the reliability of DNA evidence.

In a preliminary hearing briefing presented Aug. 11, the defense argued the state did not establish the aggravating factor required to pursue the death penalty in Utah, because it said the state failed to show a high probability that Robinson “knowingly created a great risk of death to another other than Charlie Kirk.” The defense added that the shooter hit his “intended target.”

The Utah County Attorney’s Office offered a reply memorandum on Aug. 16, stating the defense misrepresented the evidentiary standard and that the aggravating factor was established. Prosecutors added that the defense did not challenge the evidence that Robinson shot and killed Kirk.